I went 2 for 3 yesterday with my only loss being the Tampa game. Ugh. Tampa did have a chance to tie it up in the 9th so at least it was a close game. The Milwaukee game went as planned, Garza gave up hits along with runs and Narveson pitched like he did his first outing allowing 6h 9ks and 0 runs over 7 innings. The bullpen for the brewers closed up shop. Cleveland squeaked out a victory and I am glad I didn't give the points. Bradley's error was costly as he let the eventual game winning run home. This puts me at 15 Wins and 11 Losses. My money total is now at $565.08. I also was right about the night game in San Fran. Great game and I picked the over under correctly. That puts me at 2 right and 1 wrong with o/u.
Today I am just going to pick the night game because I have had so much to do today and this won't take as long to research.
Pick NYY (-1.5 +147) at Boston
Yea, I'm picking the Yankees. How could you pick Boston if you had to money on the line? Beckett is continuing his torturous 2010 campaign. Last year vs the Yankees he put up a 10.04 ERA over 26 innings. He also had a 5.43 ERA at home. Sabathia so far has been lights out in his first 2 starts. Carrying a WHIP of .85, giving up just 3 walks and 2 ER. He did have a higher than average ERA vs the BoSox last year at 3.96 but even if he continues at that pace I don't think it will matter. The Yankees offense should take over in this game and bring the series victory to New York. I am worried about giving up the points on this game. I think it might be a close one but it just seems that the offense for NYY will put up enough to cruise to an easy victory.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Saturday, April 9, 2011
April 9th picks
Was 3 for 3 at sucking yesterday. It was a good day though, got some fishing in and relaxed with my grandpa on the patio while we grilled up what we caught. Those 3 losses put me at 13 Wins and 10 Losses and brought my money total to $467.58. If I would have gone with the moneyline on the Rockies and Marlins game I would have made money. I think I need to get more experience to see when I should take the points or take the win. Boston finally pulled out a win, which if you're reading this Noble you were correct. 1 for 7 isn't bad.....Burn hahaha. True burn on me though because I picked the Yankees and I think if you asked me again today I would have picked them again. They both had horrendous pitching giving up 6 earned runs apiece by the starters. The bullpen is what gave the Yanks the loss. The Florida Houston game had some great pitching. Both starters went at least 7 innings and gave up 3 runs total. Rodriguez for Houston let the Marlins get on base but the Marlins just didn't capitalize leaving 8 men on. I just don't want to mention my Colorado pick. I will never mention that I am confident on a pick again.
Today's picks.
Pick Milwaukee(Narveson) vs Chicago Cubs(Garza) Moneyline -113
Potential: $88.50
Narveson has gone 3 and 0 against the cubs in 9 starts, both bullpens are iffy and have given up losses so far this season. I think it being in Milwaukee, one of the most fun cities to pronounce, and also if Narveson can stay on the mound, which out of 28 games started last year he only made it through the 7th inning 4 times, they could pull it off. Garza gave up 12 singles to Pittsburgh in his last outing and if he continues to give up contact like that then Milwaukee will not just be hitting singles.
Pick Tampa Bay (W. Davis) at Chicago White Sox (Humber) Moneyline +100
Potential: $100
You will be able to tell from this next stat that I do not have my kids this weekend. Over the past 3 years coming of a streak of 3 or more losses followed by a win the next game, the following game after that win Tampa Bay has won 14 out of 22 times. The White Sox have a pattern of Win Win Loss Loss Win Win Loss and if we follow this pattern the next logical outcome should be Loss. Haha. More logically the Sox are putting up a new kid in Humber and I think the Rays will make a turn for the better with Ramirez gone. Wade Davis has won the 2 games he has started against the sox posting a 2.19 era. I haven't done well betting for Tampa so hopefully this will change.
Pick Cleveland(Masterson) at Seattle(Fister) Moneyline +109
Potential: $109
When developing my formula for betting on games the biggest factor was offense. Defense or ERA did not really factor that well into the formula and just based off of offense Cleveland should pick up this game. 44 runs over 7 games and on top of that putting up 12 runs last night. Last year Cleveland only won 6 games by 10 or more runs and out of those 6 they followed it up with a win. Of course this isn't the same team so far.
I think the game to watch will be the San Francisco vs. St. Louis game. Not just because I am a Cards fan but because I am a fan of good pitching. These 2 Starters could have you on the edge of your seat with a low scoring nail biter. Garcia and Cain were close to perfect their first two outings, neither giving up a run and both giving up 9 hits total (4 for Garcia and 5 for Cain) and just 2 walks, each by Garcia. I want to bet on the under at 7.5. So far on my little o/u side bets I am 1 for 2 and I think they might start becoming a habit.
Today's picks.
Pick Milwaukee(Narveson) vs Chicago Cubs(Garza) Moneyline -113
Potential: $88.50
Narveson has gone 3 and 0 against the cubs in 9 starts, both bullpens are iffy and have given up losses so far this season. I think it being in Milwaukee, one of the most fun cities to pronounce, and also if Narveson can stay on the mound, which out of 28 games started last year he only made it through the 7th inning 4 times, they could pull it off. Garza gave up 12 singles to Pittsburgh in his last outing and if he continues to give up contact like that then Milwaukee will not just be hitting singles.
Pick Tampa Bay (W. Davis) at Chicago White Sox (Humber) Moneyline +100
Potential: $100
You will be able to tell from this next stat that I do not have my kids this weekend. Over the past 3 years coming of a streak of 3 or more losses followed by a win the next game, the following game after that win Tampa Bay has won 14 out of 22 times. The White Sox have a pattern of Win Win Loss Loss Win Win Loss and if we follow this pattern the next logical outcome should be Loss. Haha. More logically the Sox are putting up a new kid in Humber and I think the Rays will make a turn for the better with Ramirez gone. Wade Davis has won the 2 games he has started against the sox posting a 2.19 era. I haven't done well betting for Tampa so hopefully this will change.
Pick Cleveland(Masterson) at Seattle(Fister) Moneyline +109
Potential: $109
When developing my formula for betting on games the biggest factor was offense. Defense or ERA did not really factor that well into the formula and just based off of offense Cleveland should pick up this game. 44 runs over 7 games and on top of that putting up 12 runs last night. Last year Cleveland only won 6 games by 10 or more runs and out of those 6 they followed it up with a win. Of course this isn't the same team so far.
I think the game to watch will be the San Francisco vs. St. Louis game. Not just because I am a Cards fan but because I am a fan of good pitching. These 2 Starters could have you on the edge of your seat with a low scoring nail biter. Garcia and Cain were close to perfect their first two outings, neither giving up a run and both giving up 9 hits total (4 for Garcia and 5 for Cain) and just 2 walks, each by Garcia. I want to bet on the under at 7.5. So far on my little o/u side bets I am 1 for 2 and I think they might start becoming a habit.
Friday, April 8, 2011
April 8th Picks
I went 3 for 3 yesterday. That puts my Wins at 13 and Losses at 7. Using the $100 a game betting total that puts my winnings at $767.58 on the season making my monopoly money rate of return to be 38.38%. Not bad, wish it was real money haha. I was off on my Philly pick, Halladay was Halladay but Niese got rocked and it proves that I should never bet the over under. I was also wrong about Cincy's young starter LeCure, he put up a great game but the Astros managed to pull it off. Tampa, poor Tampa, they did exactly what I thought they would do.
Pick NYY at Boston (Moneyline +126)
Why do I like seeing Boston lose. I do not think they will be able to put up more runs that the Yankees line up, even though they will be going against a rival and they will be at home. Both pitchers had horrible starts and if that continues the Yankee line up will be able to devour Lackey.
Pick Florida at Houston (Run Line -1.5 +147)
Rodriguez for Houston got lit up for 7 runs his first outing. Nolasco gave up 2 over 7 innings. I think Florida can put up some runs if they can get on base. Houston got their first win yesterday and I just don't see this becoming a streak.
Pick Colorado at Pittsburgh (Run Line -1.5 +128)
I am most confident about this pick. I don't know if that mean anything but I think De La Rosa for Colorado will be able to shut down the Pirates offense and the bull pen for Colorado has only given up 3 runs over their first 4 games. I think it will be low scoring unless Colorado gets hot and I would take the over at 8. Not giving up on my o/u guesses haha.
Pick NYY at Boston (Moneyline +126)
Why do I like seeing Boston lose. I do not think they will be able to put up more runs that the Yankees line up, even though they will be going against a rival and they will be at home. Both pitchers had horrible starts and if that continues the Yankee line up will be able to devour Lackey.
Pick Florida at Houston (Run Line -1.5 +147)
Rodriguez for Houston got lit up for 7 runs his first outing. Nolasco gave up 2 over 7 innings. I think Florida can put up some runs if they can get on base. Houston got their first win yesterday and I just don't see this becoming a streak.
Pick Colorado at Pittsburgh (Run Line -1.5 +128)
I am most confident about this pick. I don't know if that mean anything but I think De La Rosa for Colorado will be able to shut down the Pirates offense and the bull pen for Colorado has only given up 3 runs over their first 4 games. I think it will be low scoring unless Colorado gets hot and I would take the over at 8. Not giving up on my o/u guesses haha.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
April 7th picks. Took April 6th off
So I have decided to actually go back and see how much I would have made so far off my picks using teamrankings.com but I had to change one game to make this work. The Atlanta-Milwaukee game on April 4th had a different run-line on yahoo so I just threw it out as a push. This actually brings my totals to 10Wins to 7Losses, this includes the April 5th picks were I was right on 2 out of the 4 games. I hypothetically bet $100 on each game, it makes the odds easier to calculate. Using this, I have $1127.84 in winnings, but I have spent $700 on my lost bets so therefore my total winnings are $427.84. With 17 games played, this means I have put up a $1700 investment and made $427.84 over the top. I will take a 25% rate of return on an investment. Of course this is just over 17 games and if I continue with 3 games a day for lets say 6 days a week that will be roughly about 400 more games to bet on as long as I don't get bored with this at some point and realize I'm spending way to much time, and in all actuallity am creating a negative rate of return if time does actually equal money.
So from here on out I am going to either bet the run line or money line. I will post also how much I will make per bet if won given I put up $100. Here is a good little intro if you have no idea what I am talking about http://casinogambling.about.com/od/racesports/a/baseball.htm I have to admit that sometimes I have to google stuff like this because of all the different betting lingo.
Pick Houston at Reds (Money line +133)
Profit $133
Houston has Myers on the mound who is their #1 starter and he is going agaist LeCure who is making his 6th start in the majors and first this season and out of those 6 starts he had a 5.31 era. Houstons record looks crappy but they went up against The Phillies top three starters right out of the gate. I think this game will turn them around or at minimum give them that much needed win.
Pick Philadelphia(-1.5) vs. NY Mets (Run line +115)
Profit $115
I think this is going to come down to a pitchers duel. In thinking that I should go with the moneyline but I think if Philly can get into the Mets bullpen they should be able to put up some runs. Halladay should be electric, but The Mets have been putting big numbers up on the board as well. Niese, the starter for NYM, had an ERA of 2.14 with his 3 starts against the Phillies last year so if that keeps up we should see low run. I don't usually do o/u, but the 7.5 is enticing. I'm thinking 3-1 phillies.
Chicago White Sox vs The Rays (Moneyline -109)
Profit $91.74
Poor Tampa. They are my A.L. team and man they are stinking it up right now. I think that will continue in this game. The White Sox have knocked in 40 runs over the past 5 games against better teams. Price is on the mound for Tampa, but if those bats don't turn around for the Rays I don't think it would make a difference who was out there.
So from here on out I am going to either bet the run line or money line. I will post also how much I will make per bet if won given I put up $100. Here is a good little intro if you have no idea what I am talking about http://casinogambling.about.com/od/racesports/a/baseball.htm I have to admit that sometimes I have to google stuff like this because of all the different betting lingo.
Pick Houston at Reds (Money line +133)
Profit $133
Houston has Myers on the mound who is their #1 starter and he is going agaist LeCure who is making his 6th start in the majors and first this season and out of those 6 starts he had a 5.31 era. Houstons record looks crappy but they went up against The Phillies top three starters right out of the gate. I think this game will turn them around or at minimum give them that much needed win.
Pick Philadelphia(-1.5) vs. NY Mets (Run line +115)
Profit $115
I think this is going to come down to a pitchers duel. In thinking that I should go with the moneyline but I think if Philly can get into the Mets bullpen they should be able to put up some runs. Halladay should be electric, but The Mets have been putting big numbers up on the board as well. Niese, the starter for NYM, had an ERA of 2.14 with his 3 starts against the Phillies last year so if that keeps up we should see low run. I don't usually do o/u, but the 7.5 is enticing. I'm thinking 3-1 phillies.
Chicago White Sox vs The Rays (Moneyline -109)
Profit $91.74
Poor Tampa. They are my A.L. team and man they are stinking it up right now. I think that will continue in this game. The White Sox have knocked in 40 runs over the past 5 games against better teams. Price is on the mound for Tampa, but if those bats don't turn around for the Rays I don't think it would make a difference who was out there.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
April 5th picks
Getting 3 out of 3 picks right yesterday makes me feel good. Wishing I had money on those games makes me feel a little down. This brings my wins to 9 on the season and losses to 5, against the spread. Recapping yesterdays picks, the Balitmore game was almost dead on how I covered it. Porcello gave up his 5 earned runs and Baltimore cruised by with a win against the Tigers. I was wrong about the ATL game because the pitcher for Milwaukee, Narveson, threw a gem (6 innings, 3 hits, 0 earned runs). It was the Bullpen that caved and let The Braves squeak by with a W. In the Texas game Holland did get the W by only giving up 3 runs in 6 innings, but he can thank that Texas lineup for coming through for him. Bedard did the same thing for Seattle and got the L. Texas is on Fiiiiire.
So, on to todays picks. Trying something a little different and going to pick 4 games because there are so many on the schedule ( I know I said I was going to do an odd number, but maybe one will rain out).
Pick Tampa(+1.5) vs LAA.
The Rays have to come out of this funk at some point or another, why not against a team that has just as many losses? I think this game could stay close and if so then I will take the points. Hoping (which is never good) The Angels don't take over this game. Weaver is a beast.
Pick Boston (-1.5) at Cleveland
Boston is coming off a season opening sweep and I believe that Josh Beckett has something to prove off such a dismal season last year. Cleveland is putting a young gun on the mound and I think that today will be Bostons time to get back on track for the season. I think that is what the city of Cleveland is meant to do.
Pick Braves (+1.5) at Brewers
I'm picking the Braves because of pitching and the points help. Derek Lowe is on the mound and the relief pitching for ATL has been solid so far. Gallardado is not a bad pitcher, giving up just 2 runs over 6 innings in his first outing, but I am going to ride this ATL bandwagon for a little while.
Pick Rockies(-1.5) vs Dodgers
I thought this was going to be my wild card pick, but apparently Vegas feels that the Rockies have a legit chance at this game as well as I do. The Rockies relief pitching has been solid over the two games they have played only giving up 2 runs, while the dodgers relief has let 7 players cross the plate over 3 games. Now, again, these are small sample sizes and it wouldn't be out of the ordinary for this game to go either way. I was hoping to get the points though.
So, on to todays picks. Trying something a little different and going to pick 4 games because there are so many on the schedule ( I know I said I was going to do an odd number, but maybe one will rain out).
Pick Tampa(+1.5) vs LAA.
The Rays have to come out of this funk at some point or another, why not against a team that has just as many losses? I think this game could stay close and if so then I will take the points. Hoping (which is never good) The Angels don't take over this game. Weaver is a beast.
Pick Boston (-1.5) at Cleveland
Boston is coming off a season opening sweep and I believe that Josh Beckett has something to prove off such a dismal season last year. Cleveland is putting a young gun on the mound and I think that today will be Bostons time to get back on track for the season. I think that is what the city of Cleveland is meant to do.
Pick Braves (+1.5) at Brewers
I'm picking the Braves because of pitching and the points help. Derek Lowe is on the mound and the relief pitching for ATL has been solid so far. Gallardado is not a bad pitcher, giving up just 2 runs over 6 innings in his first outing, but I am going to ride this ATL bandwagon for a little while.
Pick Rockies(-1.5) vs Dodgers
I thought this was going to be my wild card pick, but apparently Vegas feels that the Rockies have a legit chance at this game as well as I do. The Rockies relief pitching has been solid over the two games they have played only giving up 2 runs, while the dodgers relief has let 7 players cross the plate over 3 games. Now, again, these are small sample sizes and it wouldn't be out of the ordinary for this game to go either way. I was hoping to get the points though.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
April 4th picks
Who got 2 out of 3 picks right yesterday....This guy. That brings my Wins to 6 and my losses to 5 against the spread. I think I will be riding the Jaime Garcia bandwagon this season. I like this kid, I like that he has the potential to go 9 innings and I really think he should be the #2 starter for STL. Whats up with the Red Sox, they do have a perfect season going, just a Detroit Lions perfect, not a Patriots perfect. So on to tomorrows picks. Getting scary now because we are into the 3rd and 4th pitchers. Hopefully it will just be a battle of offenses.
Pick Baltimore(-1.5) vs Detroit
Detroit has given up 16 runs so far in the first 2 games. I know that isn't a big deal with such a small sample size, but that was with their best pitching on the mound. Now we are getting to their 3rd pitcher in Rick Porcello who had a rough April last year, minus one start. He also held above a 5 era the whole season minus 3 games last year. Conversly Baltimore has only given up 3 runs in 3 games and swept The Rays in St. Pete. So just based off momentum I'm goin with Baltimore....yea, im so good at this haha.
Pick Atlanta(+1.5) at Milwaukee
Atlanta has shown they can hit against crappy pitching and they are going against the Brewers 4th starter, but really the 5th, with Grienke hurt Narveson jumped up a spot. Beachy for the Braves only started 3 games last year, but he did keep his era in those games down to 3.00. Who knows, I'm just going with ATL because I think they have the ability to put more runs on the board.
Pick Texas(-1.5) vs Seattle.
This Holland kid pitching for Texas had a 2.32 era at home last year. Lets not talk about the road era. Plus 28 ks in 31 inning and only gave up 8 earned runs. Again, this is a small sample size of just 31 innings but that is what I will be going off of. He also pitched better at night and this will be a night game. Texas has also knocked in 26 runs over 3 games against the Red Sox. I hope they don't play down to their competition in Seattle. If they are the same offensive team that shows up then Texas should have no prob putting up the W. Seattle is putting up Bedard who didn't have any playing time last year, but he did have a decent spring training keeping his era at 3.15.
Pick Baltimore(-1.5) vs Detroit
Detroit has given up 16 runs so far in the first 2 games. I know that isn't a big deal with such a small sample size, but that was with their best pitching on the mound. Now we are getting to their 3rd pitcher in Rick Porcello who had a rough April last year, minus one start. He also held above a 5 era the whole season minus 3 games last year. Conversly Baltimore has only given up 3 runs in 3 games and swept The Rays in St. Pete. So just based off momentum I'm goin with Baltimore....yea, im so good at this haha.
Pick Atlanta(+1.5) at Milwaukee
Atlanta has shown they can hit against crappy pitching and they are going against the Brewers 4th starter, but really the 5th, with Grienke hurt Narveson jumped up a spot. Beachy for the Braves only started 3 games last year, but he did keep his era in those games down to 3.00. Who knows, I'm just going with ATL because I think they have the ability to put more runs on the board.
Pick Texas(-1.5) vs Seattle.
This Holland kid pitching for Texas had a 2.32 era at home last year. Lets not talk about the road era. Plus 28 ks in 31 inning and only gave up 8 earned runs. Again, this is a small sample size of just 31 innings but that is what I will be going off of. He also pitched better at night and this will be a night game. Texas has also knocked in 26 runs over 3 games against the Red Sox. I hope they don't play down to their competition in Seattle. If they are the same offensive team that shows up then Texas should have no prob putting up the W. Seattle is putting up Bedard who didn't have any playing time last year, but he did have a decent spring training keeping his era at 3.15.
April 3rd Picks
Trying to get this in before some of these games start.
Got 2 out of 3 right yesterday. That brings my Wins to 4 and my losses to 4. I am even on the season. What did I say about Matt Cain. Had a great start, I really like this guy. Of course its easy to like a guy with that kind of consecutive scoreless innings.
Pick Cardinals (-1.5) vs. Padres
Cards aren't going to lose 3 in a row at home. Jaime Garcia is a great up and coming pitcher. Had some great stats and I mentioned him in a blog a few months back about cheap pitchers. I just hope they win by more than 1.
Pick Boston (-1.5) at Texas
Clay Buchholz. Enough said, unless Texas shows up with that offense again.
Dodgers (-1.5) vs Giants
I am doing this purely out of spite for Zito. I don't think L.A. wants to be embarresed 2 days in a row (just like my Cards)
Just in time. 3 minutes till the first two games start.
Got 2 out of 3 right yesterday. That brings my Wins to 4 and my losses to 4. I am even on the season. What did I say about Matt Cain. Had a great start, I really like this guy. Of course its easy to like a guy with that kind of consecutive scoreless innings.
Pick Cardinals (-1.5) vs. Padres
Cards aren't going to lose 3 in a row at home. Jaime Garcia is a great up and coming pitcher. Had some great stats and I mentioned him in a blog a few months back about cheap pitchers. I just hope they win by more than 1.
Pick Boston (-1.5) at Texas
Clay Buchholz. Enough said, unless Texas shows up with that offense again.
Dodgers (-1.5) vs Giants
I am doing this purely out of spite for Zito. I don't think L.A. wants to be embarresed 2 days in a row (just like my Cards)
Just in time. 3 minutes till the first two games start.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
April Fools day part deaux
So I failed on all my picks yesterday. I picked the right winner for two, but not the right vegas winner...... So now I have 2 wins to 3 losses. Hopefully this will improve as the season progresses. I am not going to pick a game that doesn't count either. Last night I would have pulled off at least one win if I counted my Rangers pick. So here are some picks for today.
Pick Cubs(-1.5) vs Pirates
Zombrano had a decent spring. The cubs are coming off a loss at home to the Pirates so they should have some fire in their bellies....."should" being the major word.
Pick Red Sox (+1.5) at Rangers
Colby Lewis is coming off a great year, but I have to take the runs on this one, with the Red Sox line up.
Giants (+1.5) at Dodgers
I like Matt Cain on the mound. This is all I'm really going on. I could have said, I liked Ted Lilly, which honestly I would have more logical reason to, but I'm not.
Pick Cubs(-1.5) vs Pirates
Zombrano had a decent spring. The cubs are coming off a loss at home to the Pirates so they should have some fire in their bellies....."should" being the major word.
Pick Red Sox (+1.5) at Rangers
Colby Lewis is coming off a great year, but I have to take the runs on this one, with the Red Sox line up.
Giants (+1.5) at Dodgers
I like Matt Cain on the mound. This is all I'm really going on. I could have said, I liked Ted Lilly, which honestly I would have more logical reason to, but I'm not.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
April Fools Picks
I was 2 for 2 last night....really 3 for 3 if I wouldn't have been a pansy about the Angels game. I did snag the Giants game thanks to a top of the 9th Pat Burrell homer. Still didn't get the Giants the win, but it did get the win in Vegas. I chose the Cards game correctly but not on the correct logic. Carp came through again, giving up just 2 hits, 2 earned runs and walking just 2 hitters over 7 innings. Not bad work. Turns out the bull pen had some problems that led to the demise of my team, but the win for my blog.
From now on I will decide an odd amount of games. I don't like ties in sports, non-american, therefor I will be picking odd from here on out.
Pick Rays (-1.5) vs. Orioles
I like Price on the mound. This will be Manny and Johnny Damon's intro to the Rays fans in St. Pete. I have a feeling Manny will be Manny and bring in some RBI's. Scary part is the iffy bullpen. Solid last year but they lost a lot relievers.
Phillies (-1.5) vs. Astros
Roy Halladay...enough said, yet I will continue. Phills lost some fire power in there line up from last year but I think they have enough to beat the stros by 2. Can you name 3 players in the astros line up....Berkman isn't there anymore. haha.
Dodgers (-1.5) vs Giants
Johnathan Sanchez has not gone over 4 innings as a starter in his first game of the past 3 seasons. Chad Billingsly for the Dodgers has been more solid in his starts in April. I think the Dodgers squeaked out a win against a much better pitcher yesterday, so they are ready to do work today.
No underdogs..hmm..guess I'll throw in who I want to pick as an underdog but am not officially picking.
I would pick Rangers(+1.5) vs Red Sox. Its opening day and they are back in Texas after winning the pennant. Sure the Red Sox are good, but this is just one game.
From now on I will decide an odd amount of games. I don't like ties in sports, non-american, therefor I will be picking odd from here on out.
Pick Rays (-1.5) vs. Orioles
I like Price on the mound. This will be Manny and Johnny Damon's intro to the Rays fans in St. Pete. I have a feeling Manny will be Manny and bring in some RBI's. Scary part is the iffy bullpen. Solid last year but they lost a lot relievers.
Phillies (-1.5) vs. Astros
Roy Halladay...enough said, yet I will continue. Phills lost some fire power in there line up from last year but I think they have enough to beat the stros by 2. Can you name 3 players in the astros line up....Berkman isn't there anymore. haha.
Dodgers (-1.5) vs Giants
Johnathan Sanchez has not gone over 4 innings as a starter in his first game of the past 3 seasons. Chad Billingsly for the Dodgers has been more solid in his starts in April. I think the Dodgers squeaked out a win against a much better pitcher yesterday, so they are ready to do work today.
No underdogs..hmm..guess I'll throw in who I want to pick as an underdog but am not officially picking.
I would pick Rangers(+1.5) vs Red Sox. Its opening day and they are back in Texas after winning the pennant. Sure the Red Sox are good, but this is just one game.
Opening Night Games
I can't use my formula to predict games until about 20 have been played, so I am just going to have fun and pick some with what I hope is a little sound logic. I am using the odds off of sports.yahoo.com.
Pick Giants (1.5) at the Dodgers.
Lincecum is going against Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers. I like Lincecum, even though he did have a higher ERA last year than Clayton. Tim has had really good Aprils over the past 3 years (12 Wins to 4 Losses). And really, other than that there isn't much to go on other than he is a member of the reigning world champs. Clayton has 6 Wins to 5 losses for his last three springs.
Pick Padres (1.5) at the Cardinals.
I'm betting against my team, which will probably lead to my doom. It doesn't really makes sense either because the Cards ace Carpenter is going against a Tim Stauffer, a new starting pitcher that is making his transition still to the starting position as he spent most of last year in the relief. I am just pessimistic about Carps health. I hope he doesn't get hurt and honestly because I have no money on the line I hope the Cards actually win.
Game I should probably add on just because it seems like a good bet is LAA (-1.5) at KCR. I'll know tomorrow anyway, haha.
Pick Giants (1.5) at the Dodgers.
Lincecum is going against Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers. I like Lincecum, even though he did have a higher ERA last year than Clayton. Tim has had really good Aprils over the past 3 years (12 Wins to 4 Losses). And really, other than that there isn't much to go on other than he is a member of the reigning world champs. Clayton has 6 Wins to 5 losses for his last three springs.
Pick Padres (1.5) at the Cardinals.
I'm betting against my team, which will probably lead to my doom. It doesn't really makes sense either because the Cards ace Carpenter is going against a Tim Stauffer, a new starting pitcher that is making his transition still to the starting position as he spent most of last year in the relief. I am just pessimistic about Carps health. I hope he doesn't get hurt and honestly because I have no money on the line I hope the Cards actually win.
Game I should probably add on just because it seems like a good bet is LAA (-1.5) at KCR. I'll know tomorrow anyway, haha.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
PennyBall Catchers
Who should lead us behind the plate?
I'm making this a quick blog. Thought about doing outfielders tonight, but I really want to just keep it light and easy.
I went back and forth between Matt Wieters of Baltimore and Kurt Suzuki of Oakland. Their stats are really really close together. They differ in BA and SLG by only 10 percentage points, and OBP by 16% points. But as it should be, it came down to defense and it looks as though Mr. Wieters beats out Mr. Suzuki in about every category.
Catcher
Matt Wieters, Oakland Athletics. $400,000 in 2010
Mr. Wieters is a 6'5 right handed catcher out of Charleston South Carolina. 2010 was his first full season in the bigs since being drafted in the 1st round with the 5th pick overall of the 2007 draft out of Georgia Tech. Notable Yellow Jacket Draftees include, Mark Texiera, Nomar Garciaparra, and Del Pratt (1916 American League RBI leader).
Matt's offense wasn't that hot but he is a catcher, and that isn't what he is getting paid to do. He was 4th among catchers in the fielding percentage category, he had the lowest amount of passed balls (2) with a pretty bad pitching staff. His Caught Stealing Percentage was #2 at .312. Pretty good year as a catcher I would say. A big paycheck will be following its way into his bank account if he keeps up these numbers.
I'm making this a quick blog. Thought about doing outfielders tonight, but I really want to just keep it light and easy.
I went back and forth between Matt Wieters of Baltimore and Kurt Suzuki of Oakland. Their stats are really really close together. They differ in BA and SLG by only 10 percentage points, and OBP by 16% points. But as it should be, it came down to defense and it looks as though Mr. Wieters beats out Mr. Suzuki in about every category.
Catcher
Matt Wieters, Oakland Athletics. $400,000 in 2010
Mr. Wieters is a 6'5 right handed catcher out of Charleston South Carolina. 2010 was his first full season in the bigs since being drafted in the 1st round with the 5th pick overall of the 2007 draft out of Georgia Tech. Notable Yellow Jacket Draftees include, Mark Texiera, Nomar Garciaparra, and Del Pratt (1916 American League RBI leader).
Matt's offense wasn't that hot but he is a catcher, and that isn't what he is getting paid to do. He was 4th among catchers in the fielding percentage category, he had the lowest amount of passed balls (2) with a pretty bad pitching staff. His Caught Stealing Percentage was #2 at .312. Pretty good year as a catcher I would say. A big paycheck will be following its way into his bank account if he keeps up these numbers.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
PennyBall Infielders
So now the question is who would start for my Penny Penching All-Star Infield?
This time I am going to put a STAT reference guide at the bottom of the blog. So please don't feel lost when reading all the 2 to 3 letter abbreviations.
1st Base
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds. $525,000 in 2010.
Mr. Votto hails from America's Attic (aka Canada) and was drafted in the 2nd round with pick number 44 way back in 2002. He played college ball at Richview Collegiate Institute, the powerhouse of baseball from Canada. Not really, he is the first player to be drafted from that school.
Mr. Votto was any real easy pick for the infield. He won the NL MVP award for goodness sake. The Reds got an NL MVP for just $525,000. (The Rays paid $10,250,00 and got Carlos Pena. .196 BA, 158 SO, and .407 SLG). He was #2 in the league in SLG with .600, #2 in the league in OPS at 1.024, #2 BA at .324, #6 in Walks, #1 in OBP, #5 in HR, and #6 among First basemen in FPCT (Fielding percentage). Needless to say he had a ridiculous year. If I was making an all-star team I would put him at #1 due to his performance last year (If Pujols gets his contract negotiated I will stick him above Votto though, just because he has proven he can do these types of numbers over the long haul)
2nd Base
Martin Prado, Atlanta Braves. $440,000 in 2010.
This one was a tough one to decide for me. Gordon Beckham of the White Sox and Blake DeWitt of the Dodgers/Cubs kept popping up. I know Prado had a much better year but he only played around two thirds of his games at 2nd and the other two were full time second basemen. In the end I went with Prado just because he had a much better year offensively compared to the other two and I just had to put him on the list.
Prado is a product of Venezuela. He was taken in the 2001 Amateur draft. Prado posted a solid .307 BA which put him as the 3rd highest among 2nd basemen. He was 5th in SLG, 6th in OPS, and 2nd in XB among all 2nd Basemen. He was 9th in MVP voting and represented Atlanta in the All-Star game as well. The only negative is that he isn't the best fielder. That could have come from him moving around positions so much and having to adjust or just the fact that his offense will overshadow his defense. Either way he had a great year living on such a small budget.
Shortstop
Elvis Andus, Texas Rangers. $418,420 in 2010.
Mr. Andus hails from the same country as Prado and was also taken in the Amateur draft but in 2005 and not 2001. He had a magnificent year, and if it wasn't for Votto this would be the no-brain pick for the infield. 2010 was an All-Star year for Elvis and it also had him coming in 2nd for Rookie of the Year voting.
The first thing I looked at when picking my shortstop was some fielding stats. He was very solid in this department. The most solid player that wasn't making the big bucks really. He was at least 8th among his fellow Shortstops in FPCT, DP, and RF. To add to a good fielding year he had a great small ball offensive year. 5th among shortstops in OBP, tied for 1st with shortstops for steals which put him tied for 15thn overall in the League with 32. He is not a slugging hitter and it shows in his low SLG of .301. He had the 4th highest amount of Ground Balls hit in the league, yet only hit into 6 Double Plays all season. This was the lowest for a Shortstop with at least 600 plate appearances. He also got on base with walks coming in at #4 with his BB/PA ratio of .095. He might have had more steals, or at least been more successful if it hadn't been for a nagging injury during second half of the season and the fact that the Rangers didn't need the risk/reward of him getting caught or not towards the end as well.
Third Base
Mark Reynolds Arizona Diamondbacks. $833,333 in 2010.
I know what your thinking if you have made it this far into the blog and you kept track of low salaried 3rd baseman last year, "Why didn't this idiot pick Casey Mcghee?". I know I should have, Casey made less money last year and put up better numbers, but Mr. Reynolds is a stat nerds dream. Especially a stat nerd that hates the use of the batting average as a significance on how well a player performs. It is also my blog, and no one read it anyway so I can do what I want.
Mark is from Pikeville, KY, and he was drafted in the 16th round with the 476th pick overall by Arizona back in 2004. He had what some people would call an interesting year. He led the League in K's with 211, and that was down from 223 the year before. The next highest was David Wright with 161, but David also had 98 more plate appearances than Mark. He easily had the lowest BA among Shortstops at .198 and second in the league to Carlos Pena at .196.
So I know what your thinking, "Why in the world did you pick a guy who common sense says had a horrible year"? Well, turns out is wasn't that horrible. He got on base every other way you could try to get on base. He lead all 3rd basemen with 83 Walks, which put him 12th in the league. He also led 3rd basemen with the ever important Hit by Pitch statistic with 9. His SLG wasn't bad with .433. This tells us that when he did actually swing and hit the ball it at least got tattooed. My most favorite stat that he led 3d basemen with was P/PA (Pitches per Plate Appearance), which was 4.31. This means he has patience, maybe a little to much patience, but if he can develop the technique of just putting lumber on the ball then his numbers will rise. This is why I say I think he is a stat nerd dream, he has great potential because he has all the nerdy stats in place, now he just has to please the "common" stat guys. i.e. BA.
Well, do you think I overlooked anyone? Why do I even ask this, you have probably fallen asleep at this point or just really clicked on the link because you saw it on my facebook and thought "What is he doing instead of actual real work?".
References
BA - Batting Average
SO - Strike outs, sometimes referred to as K's.
SLG - Slugging percentage. google it if you do not know it.
OPS - On base percentage plus Slugging percentage
OBP - On base percentage
XB - Number of extra base hits. A base hit more than a single.
DP - Double plays fielded.
RF - Range Factor. You can google it, its just a way to grade fielders.
This time I am going to put a STAT reference guide at the bottom of the blog. So please don't feel lost when reading all the 2 to 3 letter abbreviations.
1st Base
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds. $525,000 in 2010.
Mr. Votto hails from America's Attic (aka Canada) and was drafted in the 2nd round with pick number 44 way back in 2002. He played college ball at Richview Collegiate Institute, the powerhouse of baseball from Canada. Not really, he is the first player to be drafted from that school.
Mr. Votto was any real easy pick for the infield. He won the NL MVP award for goodness sake. The Reds got an NL MVP for just $525,000. (The Rays paid $10,250,00 and got Carlos Pena. .196 BA, 158 SO, and .407 SLG). He was #2 in the league in SLG with .600, #2 in the league in OPS at 1.024, #2 BA at .324, #6 in Walks, #1 in OBP, #5 in HR, and #6 among First basemen in FPCT (Fielding percentage). Needless to say he had a ridiculous year. If I was making an all-star team I would put him at #1 due to his performance last year (If Pujols gets his contract negotiated I will stick him above Votto though, just because he has proven he can do these types of numbers over the long haul)
2nd Base
Martin Prado, Atlanta Braves. $440,000 in 2010.
This one was a tough one to decide for me. Gordon Beckham of the White Sox and Blake DeWitt of the Dodgers/Cubs kept popping up. I know Prado had a much better year but he only played around two thirds of his games at 2nd and the other two were full time second basemen. In the end I went with Prado just because he had a much better year offensively compared to the other two and I just had to put him on the list.
Prado is a product of Venezuela. He was taken in the 2001 Amateur draft. Prado posted a solid .307 BA which put him as the 3rd highest among 2nd basemen. He was 5th in SLG, 6th in OPS, and 2nd in XB among all 2nd Basemen. He was 9th in MVP voting and represented Atlanta in the All-Star game as well. The only negative is that he isn't the best fielder. That could have come from him moving around positions so much and having to adjust or just the fact that his offense will overshadow his defense. Either way he had a great year living on such a small budget.
Shortstop
Elvis Andus, Texas Rangers. $418,420 in 2010.
Mr. Andus hails from the same country as Prado and was also taken in the Amateur draft but in 2005 and not 2001. He had a magnificent year, and if it wasn't for Votto this would be the no-brain pick for the infield. 2010 was an All-Star year for Elvis and it also had him coming in 2nd for Rookie of the Year voting.
The first thing I looked at when picking my shortstop was some fielding stats. He was very solid in this department. The most solid player that wasn't making the big bucks really. He was at least 8th among his fellow Shortstops in FPCT, DP, and RF. To add to a good fielding year he had a great small ball offensive year. 5th among shortstops in OBP, tied for 1st with shortstops for steals which put him tied for 15thn overall in the League with 32. He is not a slugging hitter and it shows in his low SLG of .301. He had the 4th highest amount of Ground Balls hit in the league, yet only hit into 6 Double Plays all season. This was the lowest for a Shortstop with at least 600 plate appearances. He also got on base with walks coming in at #4 with his BB/PA ratio of .095. He might have had more steals, or at least been more successful if it hadn't been for a nagging injury during second half of the season and the fact that the Rangers didn't need the risk/reward of him getting caught or not towards the end as well.
Mark Reynolds Arizona Diamondbacks. $833,333 in 2010.
I know what your thinking if you have made it this far into the blog and you kept track of low salaried 3rd baseman last year, "Why didn't this idiot pick Casey Mcghee?". I know I should have, Casey made less money last year and put up better numbers, but Mr. Reynolds is a stat nerds dream. Especially a stat nerd that hates the use of the batting average as a significance on how well a player performs. It is also my blog, and no one read it anyway so I can do what I want.
Mark is from Pikeville, KY, and he was drafted in the 16th round with the 476th pick overall by Arizona back in 2004. He had what some people would call an interesting year. He led the League in K's with 211, and that was down from 223 the year before. The next highest was David Wright with 161, but David also had 98 more plate appearances than Mark. He easily had the lowest BA among Shortstops at .198 and second in the league to Carlos Pena at .196.
So I know what your thinking, "Why in the world did you pick a guy who common sense says had a horrible year"? Well, turns out is wasn't that horrible. He got on base every other way you could try to get on base. He lead all 3rd basemen with 83 Walks, which put him 12th in the league. He also led 3rd basemen with the ever important Hit by Pitch statistic with 9. His SLG wasn't bad with .433. This tells us that when he did actually swing and hit the ball it at least got tattooed. My most favorite stat that he led 3d basemen with was P/PA (Pitches per Plate Appearance), which was 4.31. This means he has patience, maybe a little to much patience, but if he can develop the technique of just putting lumber on the ball then his numbers will rise. This is why I say I think he is a stat nerd dream, he has great potential because he has all the nerdy stats in place, now he just has to please the "common" stat guys. i.e. BA.
Well, do you think I overlooked anyone? Why do I even ask this, you have probably fallen asleep at this point or just really clicked on the link because you saw it on my facebook and thought "What is he doing instead of actual real work?".
References
BA - Batting Average
SO - Strike outs, sometimes referred to as K's.
SLG - Slugging percentage. google it if you do not know it.
OPS - On base percentage plus Slugging percentage
OBP - On base percentage
XB - Number of extra base hits. A base hit more than a single.
DP - Double plays fielded.
RF - Range Factor. You can google it, its just a way to grade fielders.
Monday, February 21, 2011
PennyBall.....not as ballin as that one book.
Intersting thought occured to me today. Who would make the PennyBall all-star team?
We will define The PennyBall All-Star Team as an all-star team composed of players working for the bare minimum, or at least real close to it. Players in that ever so low tax-bracket between $400,00 to $700,000 a year. At first I thought of naming them "The Pirates All-Star Team", but then I realized the Padres are almost just as cheap. Of course one of those teams churns out a decent product oh, maybe every 18 years or so.
I am going to have a STAT reference sheet here at the top. I hate reading through stat research articles and being clueless when they mention certain stats so here I will have my reference guide for this blog entry.
WHIP - Walks+Hits per Inning Pitched
K - Strikeouts
ERA - Earned Run Average (Average Runs given up over 9 innings)
K/9 - Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched
DIPS - ERA independent of defensive factors.
BIPA - Ball in play average. Average balls put in play over the season. A ball put in play is defined as a ball hit into the field of play.
BAA - Batting Average Allowed
SLG - Slugging Average Against
Today I will start with our Penny Penching Pitchers. I don't really have a limit of pitchers set, I just tried to snag a few and 4 is what I wound up with in no particular order, except the first one, the starter.
Mat Latos, San Diego Padres. $407,800 in 2010.
Mr. Latos is a 6'6" Right handed fireball throwing fantasy players dream from Alexandria, VA. He was drafted back in 2006 with the 333rd pick in the 11th round. 2010 was his first full year in the Majors and oh what a year it was.
He made our starter for the ridiculous stats he put over his first full season. You will notice he actually has the lowest Wins, at 14, in our group of pitchers but with these kind of stats I would feel confident putting him on the mound to start our imaginary all-star game. He put up a 2.92 ERA which put him at #13 overall. He was also #2 at lowest Hits allowed with at least 30 games and #17 in walks allowed with just 50. This puts that ever important WHIP statistic at 1.08 which was 8th lowest in the league. He was also 8th in K/9 with 9.21. The nerdiest of the stats for Mat I will use is his DIPS which came in 5th in the league. This means that even with or without a great defense he put up great stats. Needless to say he put up great numbers and if he keeps it up that huge contract will not be far behind.
Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics $410,000 in 2010.
Mr. Cahill is a 22 year old 6'4" Right hander from Oceanside, CA. He was drafted back in 2006 with the 66th pick in the 2nd round out of Vista HS. 2010 was his second year in the Majors and on a side note he wound up 9th in voting for the Cy Young award.
The first thing that pops out are his 18 wins. That means the A's paid $22,777.77 per win, which is very very low to shell out. Needless to say he fits right into to the notoriously tight-waded A's organization. The first thing that stood out stat-wise was his BIPA. He was numero uno in lowest BIPA. If hitters aren't putting the ball in play then the only other way they can get on is by walks and hit by pitch. Well he was 17th lowest in walks and therefor that put his WHIP at a solid 1.11 which was 11th lowest in the league. He was also #8 in BAA at .220, which makes sense if they didn't get hits off of him and another stat that was pretty interesting was that he was #3 in DPB (Double Plays Batted). This leads us to a few negatives I guess. The first is that his DIP% was pretty high, which tells us that he had a solid defense behind him. Of course this is good for his stats and the biggest negative was his average innings pitched was 5.9. This means on average he didn't even get to clock in a quality start, which says you must pitch at least 6 innings and give up less than 4 runs. There is mucho grande debate over what a true quality start is and I'm not going to touch that. I'm just going off the definition I found online. We all know if its online it must be true. The few stories I read online were saying that they expect next year to not be as fabulous for Mr. Cahill as this year, and to that I say, understandable. He had a great year in a young career. He has time to develop and with young pitchers good and bad years happen. For him I hope the next is even better.
Clay Bucholz, Boston Red Sox. $443,000 in 2010.
Mr. Bucholz is a 6'3" Right hander from Nederland, TX. He was drafted with the 42nd pick of the 1st round out of Angelina College in Lufkin,TX. He has seen action in the majors before this year, but 2010 was his first full year in the big leagues. He also finished 6th in the Cy Young award voting and represented the Red Sox in the actual All-Star game.
Again the big reason he made this list is because of his wins. With 17 wins and only getting paid $443K that is $26058.82 per win. That is great and all, but he really put up some great stats in some departments. The one stat the really stand out is his ERA at 2.33. Thats #3 in the bigs. He also has a pretty WHIP at just 1.20. Another one that stands out was that he was number #1 in fewest hits allowed this season at 142. That averaged out to just 5.07 hits per game. He had middle of the road stats on walks per 9 at 3.5 and also K/9 of 6.2. But his SGA came in 3rd lowest at .312. This means he wasn't giving up the big hits. He was putting people on base, but they just weren't getting around to home plate.
Phil Hughes, New York Yankees. $447,000 in 2010.
Mr. Hughes (coincidentally my 9th grade math teacher) is a 6'5" Right hander from Mission Viejo,CA. He was drafted back in 2004 in the first round with the 23rd pick overall out of Foothill HS in Santa Anna CA. He is the most seasoned of our penny penching pitching squad. He was a set up man with the Yankees before turning into a starting pitcher this past year. He represented the Yankees in the 2010 All-Star game.
Again just like the last two pitchers the amount of wins is real nice to get out of such a low salary. Phil had 18 Wins which put him at $24,833.33 per win for the Yankees payroll department. I know he is a great pitcher with great stuff, but I really think what got him to that level is the fact he is playing for a stacked Yankees line up. Of the top 25 Pitchers in the Win column he is one of two with an ERA greater than 4.00. This tells me he had some potent offense in the line up to make up for some games that should have gone to the other team. Notably 3 games that he gave up over 5 earned runs and still made out with the W. Now if he had a 15 Win season he still might have made this list due to his WHIP at 1.25, but what really hurt him was the amount of Walks he had. Of interesting note, he did not have one hit batter the entire season, which of course had him tied for first.
Honarable Mention. (Mainly because I'm tired and want to go to sleep)
Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets. $500,000 in 2010
15 Wins in 2010 for the half a mil is pretty good. He had a pretty low On Base Percentage and he only gave up 12 Home runs all year. Had a solid ERA of 3.66 as well. Didn't make the cut because the other players either had more wins or better stats. Still a great year for Mr. Pelfrey.
Jaimy Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals. $400,000 in 2010
Lowest win total out of the bunch at 13, but he was 3rd in voting for Rookie of the Year honors. Biggest stat was his extremely low 2.70 ERA. Man I hope he keeps this up for my Cardinals. He was 4th in fewest hits allowed and had a really low SLG. His walks were not so hot, which hopefully his command will develop over time, but that low SLG tells me he isn't going to give up many big hits. I feel the biggest negative is that the Cardinals only got an average of 5.82 innings out of him per game. Hopefully this is because of his youth. Good luck to him next year.
I will say this was the most time I have spent on research for one of these blogs so far. Tell me what you think in the comment section, maybe I left someone out, I'm sure I did.
We will define The PennyBall All-Star Team as an all-star team composed of players working for the bare minimum, or at least real close to it. Players in that ever so low tax-bracket between $400,00 to $700,000 a year. At first I thought of naming them "The Pirates All-Star Team", but then I realized the Padres are almost just as cheap. Of course one of those teams churns out a decent product oh, maybe every 18 years or so.
I am going to have a STAT reference sheet here at the top. I hate reading through stat research articles and being clueless when they mention certain stats so here I will have my reference guide for this blog entry.
WHIP - Walks+Hits per Inning Pitched
K - Strikeouts
ERA - Earned Run Average (Average Runs given up over 9 innings)
K/9 - Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched
DIPS - ERA independent of defensive factors.
BIPA - Ball in play average. Average balls put in play over the season. A ball put in play is defined as a ball hit into the field of play.
BAA - Batting Average Allowed
SLG - Slugging Average Against
Today I will start with our Penny Penching Pitchers. I don't really have a limit of pitchers set, I just tried to snag a few and 4 is what I wound up with in no particular order, except the first one, the starter.
Mat Latos, San Diego Padres. $407,800 in 2010.
Mr. Latos is a 6'6" Right handed fireball throwing fantasy players dream from Alexandria, VA. He was drafted back in 2006 with the 333rd pick in the 11th round. 2010 was his first full year in the Majors and oh what a year it was.
He made our starter for the ridiculous stats he put over his first full season. You will notice he actually has the lowest Wins, at 14, in our group of pitchers but with these kind of stats I would feel confident putting him on the mound to start our imaginary all-star game. He put up a 2.92 ERA which put him at #13 overall. He was also #2 at lowest Hits allowed with at least 30 games and #17 in walks allowed with just 50. This puts that ever important WHIP statistic at 1.08 which was 8th lowest in the league. He was also 8th in K/9 with 9.21. The nerdiest of the stats for Mat I will use is his DIPS which came in 5th in the league. This means that even with or without a great defense he put up great stats. Needless to say he put up great numbers and if he keeps it up that huge contract will not be far behind.
Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics $410,000 in 2010.
Mr. Cahill is a 22 year old 6'4" Right hander from Oceanside, CA. He was drafted back in 2006 with the 66th pick in the 2nd round out of Vista HS. 2010 was his second year in the Majors and on a side note he wound up 9th in voting for the Cy Young award.
The first thing that pops out are his 18 wins. That means the A's paid $22,777.77 per win, which is very very low to shell out. Needless to say he fits right into to the notoriously tight-waded A's organization. The first thing that stood out stat-wise was his BIPA. He was numero uno in lowest BIPA. If hitters aren't putting the ball in play then the only other way they can get on is by walks and hit by pitch. Well he was 17th lowest in walks and therefor that put his WHIP at a solid 1.11 which was 11th lowest in the league. He was also #8 in BAA at .220, which makes sense if they didn't get hits off of him and another stat that was pretty interesting was that he was #3 in DPB (Double Plays Batted). This leads us to a few negatives I guess. The first is that his DIP% was pretty high, which tells us that he had a solid defense behind him. Of course this is good for his stats and the biggest negative was his average innings pitched was 5.9. This means on average he didn't even get to clock in a quality start, which says you must pitch at least 6 innings and give up less than 4 runs. There is mucho grande debate over what a true quality start is and I'm not going to touch that. I'm just going off the definition I found online. We all know if its online it must be true. The few stories I read online were saying that they expect next year to not be as fabulous for Mr. Cahill as this year, and to that I say, understandable. He had a great year in a young career. He has time to develop and with young pitchers good and bad years happen. For him I hope the next is even better.
Clay Bucholz, Boston Red Sox. $443,000 in 2010.
Mr. Bucholz is a 6'3" Right hander from Nederland, TX. He was drafted with the 42nd pick of the 1st round out of Angelina College in Lufkin,TX. He has seen action in the majors before this year, but 2010 was his first full year in the big leagues. He also finished 6th in the Cy Young award voting and represented the Red Sox in the actual All-Star game.
Again the big reason he made this list is because of his wins. With 17 wins and only getting paid $443K that is $26058.82 per win. That is great and all, but he really put up some great stats in some departments. The one stat the really stand out is his ERA at 2.33. Thats #3 in the bigs. He also has a pretty WHIP at just 1.20. Another one that stands out was that he was number #1 in fewest hits allowed this season at 142. That averaged out to just 5.07 hits per game. He had middle of the road stats on walks per 9 at 3.5 and also K/9 of 6.2. But his SGA came in 3rd lowest at .312. This means he wasn't giving up the big hits. He was putting people on base, but they just weren't getting around to home plate.
Phil Hughes, New York Yankees. $447,000 in 2010.
Mr. Hughes (coincidentally my 9th grade math teacher) is a 6'5" Right hander from Mission Viejo,CA. He was drafted back in 2004 in the first round with the 23rd pick overall out of Foothill HS in Santa Anna CA. He is the most seasoned of our penny penching pitching squad. He was a set up man with the Yankees before turning into a starting pitcher this past year. He represented the Yankees in the 2010 All-Star game.
Again just like the last two pitchers the amount of wins is real nice to get out of such a low salary. Phil had 18 Wins which put him at $24,833.33 per win for the Yankees payroll department. I know he is a great pitcher with great stuff, but I really think what got him to that level is the fact he is playing for a stacked Yankees line up. Of the top 25 Pitchers in the Win column he is one of two with an ERA greater than 4.00. This tells me he had some potent offense in the line up to make up for some games that should have gone to the other team. Notably 3 games that he gave up over 5 earned runs and still made out with the W. Now if he had a 15 Win season he still might have made this list due to his WHIP at 1.25, but what really hurt him was the amount of Walks he had. Of interesting note, he did not have one hit batter the entire season, which of course had him tied for first.
Honarable Mention. (Mainly because I'm tired and want to go to sleep)
Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets. $500,000 in 2010
15 Wins in 2010 for the half a mil is pretty good. He had a pretty low On Base Percentage and he only gave up 12 Home runs all year. Had a solid ERA of 3.66 as well. Didn't make the cut because the other players either had more wins or better stats. Still a great year for Mr. Pelfrey.
Jaimy Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals. $400,000 in 2010
Lowest win total out of the bunch at 13, but he was 3rd in voting for Rookie of the Year honors. Biggest stat was his extremely low 2.70 ERA. Man I hope he keeps this up for my Cardinals. He was 4th in fewest hits allowed and had a really low SLG. His walks were not so hot, which hopefully his command will develop over time, but that low SLG tells me he isn't going to give up many big hits. I feel the biggest negative is that the Cardinals only got an average of 5.82 innings out of him per game. Hopefully this is because of his youth. Good luck to him next year.
I will say this was the most time I have spent on research for one of these blogs so far. Tell me what you think in the comment section, maybe I left someone out, I'm sure I did.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Blog for Paul
So my good friend Paul mentioned "I think the biggest key to a win is pitching to contact. Maddox and Smoltz are two easy examples. Ground balls kept in the infield win games for pitchers. Do they track that stat? Don't rip me ...for my examples please, it's late." and to this I ask, Does pitching to contact win games?
Now before we get started Paul brought up two hall of fame pitchers. I would like to think of these guys as two outliers. My brain's first thought is if we pitch to contact then the hitter has a better chance of getting on base, which leads to a better chance of him getting to home. Here is what we must decide before we did in to this thought.
What stat declares a pitcher to be a good pitcher? I am going to use ERA (Earned Run Average). Its such a basic stat, and that is why I love it. A low ERA means less players cross the plate which gives your team a better chance of winning.
What stat/stats would tell us he is a contact pitcher? This is where it got interesting. Of course if he had a large BAA (batting average against) it would mean he would be a high contact hitter, but what if those hits where outs as in the scenario we are describing. So I thought if the pitcher had a low ERA plus a low K rate (strikeout for the extremely baseball stat illiterate) and a pretty low or even kind of low BAA then it must mean he was a contact pitcher. I am not defining low or high yet, this is just me thinking, sort of like those dream sequences in late 80's/early 90's sitcoms.
So I decided to look at last years pitchers in the MLB and see who meets this description. First I started with the top 50 pitchers with the lowest ERA because that is how I am defining a pitcher being good or bad. (Yes you could use some nerdier stat I know, but again I like ERA because its easy) I sorted those 50 players based on K's per inning. One pitcher stood out from the rest last year. He was the only pitcher with an ERA under 3.0 with a K per inning under .60 and thats R.A. Dickey for the Mets. There were others that I would stick in the same category, mainly Trevor Cahill in Oakland, Tim Hudson with Atlanta and Clay Buchholz with Boston. But the difference between those players and Dickey was that Dickey had the highest Hits per Inning rate out of the bunch. What saved him was his BBIP (Base on ball per inning pitch). Out of the top 50 ERA pitchers he ranked number 9 in this category and on top of that he is the only one out of that group even in the top 28 in BBIP. So he is extremely accurate and because of this it is compensating for his high contact rate. The crappy part is that it did not convert to Wins and Losses which is probably why he isn't considered and elite pitcher. He had 11 wins and 9 losses on the season. He also didn't play as many games as the other top pitchers (27 compared to the low to mid 30's for the other players) which is why his stats may be skewed a little. With less games it means that a few good games can skew your average down on most of these stats I mentioned.
I'm definitely going to keep an eye on this guy and see what happens throughout the rest of his career. He has been in up and down with the bigs since 2001 but last year was easily the best year he has had so far. So much so the Mets gave him a pretty heafty contract. For them I hope last year was a fluke but for Mr. Dickey I hope it was the start to many great seasons to come.
Now before we get started Paul brought up two hall of fame pitchers. I would like to think of these guys as two outliers. My brain's first thought is if we pitch to contact then the hitter has a better chance of getting on base, which leads to a better chance of him getting to home. Here is what we must decide before we did in to this thought.
What stat declares a pitcher to be a good pitcher? I am going to use ERA (Earned Run Average). Its such a basic stat, and that is why I love it. A low ERA means less players cross the plate which gives your team a better chance of winning.
What stat/stats would tell us he is a contact pitcher? This is where it got interesting. Of course if he had a large BAA (batting average against) it would mean he would be a high contact hitter, but what if those hits where outs as in the scenario we are describing. So I thought if the pitcher had a low ERA plus a low K rate (strikeout for the extremely baseball stat illiterate) and a pretty low or even kind of low BAA then it must mean he was a contact pitcher. I am not defining low or high yet, this is just me thinking, sort of like those dream sequences in late 80's/early 90's sitcoms.
So I decided to look at last years pitchers in the MLB and see who meets this description. First I started with the top 50 pitchers with the lowest ERA because that is how I am defining a pitcher being good or bad. (Yes you could use some nerdier stat I know, but again I like ERA because its easy) I sorted those 50 players based on K's per inning. One pitcher stood out from the rest last year. He was the only pitcher with an ERA under 3.0 with a K per inning under .60 and thats R.A. Dickey for the Mets. There were others that I would stick in the same category, mainly Trevor Cahill in Oakland, Tim Hudson with Atlanta and Clay Buchholz with Boston. But the difference between those players and Dickey was that Dickey had the highest Hits per Inning rate out of the bunch. What saved him was his BBIP (Base on ball per inning pitch). Out of the top 50 ERA pitchers he ranked number 9 in this category and on top of that he is the only one out of that group even in the top 28 in BBIP. So he is extremely accurate and because of this it is compensating for his high contact rate. The crappy part is that it did not convert to Wins and Losses which is probably why he isn't considered and elite pitcher. He had 11 wins and 9 losses on the season. He also didn't play as many games as the other top pitchers (27 compared to the low to mid 30's for the other players) which is why his stats may be skewed a little. With less games it means that a few good games can skew your average down on most of these stats I mentioned.
I'm definitely going to keep an eye on this guy and see what happens throughout the rest of his career. He has been in up and down with the bigs since 2001 but last year was easily the best year he has had so far. So much so the Mets gave him a pretty heafty contract. For them I hope last year was a fluke but for Mr. Dickey I hope it was the start to many great seasons to come.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Back to the Basics
How does a baseball team beat another baseball team?
Put more runs up of course. So now the big question is if I wanted to predict if Team A was going to beat Team B what would I look for in their past games to see which team would put up more runs. There are many, many, many statistics and or logical thoughts to use. Trying to find which stat, or stats to use can be quite troublesome. They seem to all make sense to use, and actually many just make "common" sense. Well lets say Team A has put up above average runs for the season, and maybe they are in the top 5 in runs scored, this would mean that we would definitely choose Team A, right? Well there are so many other factors to factor in. What if Team A is putting out their 5th pitcher in the rotation who has struggled in every start so far this season, and Team B is putting their ace pitcher on the mound with an ERA around 2.0. Now we have painted a whole new picture of our ball game. What if we find out that starting pitching doesn't really even matter in a game, and that actually Team A has nothing to worry about because their offense will nullify any pitchers past performances.
Of course we can go on and on and many statistically inclined sports fans have. What I am more interested in is just breaking it down to the basics. Picking out a few stats that actually matter and running with them. This might sound nonacademic of me, but honestly I don't care. If I wanted to prove my intelligence I wouldn't be trying to pick baseball games. I might unknowingly throw in some wrong stats and leave out some pertinent stats, but I am not going to let the thought of this bother me while I make my picks. I want my equation to be like George W. Bush, confident and decisive. When you add 30 factors into an equation you end up more like John Kerry, less confident results and outcomes that like to ride the fence and not really tell us anything.
I'm getting closer every time I open up my laptop, and my brain, to picking the factors I will start with. After reading more into other peoples equation building process when it comes to sports I am realizing it is going to take some years of experience under my belt before I feel confident in my product. My main goal this first season is going to be to soak it all in. Yes, I might fail and not put as many wins as losses, but in failing I will learn more than I ever would succeeding.
Put more runs up of course. So now the big question is if I wanted to predict if Team A was going to beat Team B what would I look for in their past games to see which team would put up more runs. There are many, many, many statistics and or logical thoughts to use. Trying to find which stat, or stats to use can be quite troublesome. They seem to all make sense to use, and actually many just make "common" sense. Well lets say Team A has put up above average runs for the season, and maybe they are in the top 5 in runs scored, this would mean that we would definitely choose Team A, right? Well there are so many other factors to factor in. What if Team A is putting out their 5th pitcher in the rotation who has struggled in every start so far this season, and Team B is putting their ace pitcher on the mound with an ERA around 2.0. Now we have painted a whole new picture of our ball game. What if we find out that starting pitching doesn't really even matter in a game, and that actually Team A has nothing to worry about because their offense will nullify any pitchers past performances.
Of course we can go on and on and many statistically inclined sports fans have. What I am more interested in is just breaking it down to the basics. Picking out a few stats that actually matter and running with them. This might sound nonacademic of me, but honestly I don't care. If I wanted to prove my intelligence I wouldn't be trying to pick baseball games. I might unknowingly throw in some wrong stats and leave out some pertinent stats, but I am not going to let the thought of this bother me while I make my picks. I want my equation to be like George W. Bush, confident and decisive. When you add 30 factors into an equation you end up more like John Kerry, less confident results and outcomes that like to ride the fence and not really tell us anything.
I'm getting closer every time I open up my laptop, and my brain, to picking the factors I will start with. After reading more into other peoples equation building process when it comes to sports I am realizing it is going to take some years of experience under my belt before I feel confident in my product. My main goal this first season is going to be to soak it all in. Yes, I might fail and not put as many wins as losses, but in failing I will learn more than I ever would succeeding.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Interesting thought today
So I will be putting my money were my mouth is once baseball season starts. Well, really once each team has played 20 games because this is how long I let the season run before I started building my regression formula. It will not be much because lets be honest, I am a math instructor at a two year college.
Not only did I think of putting real money down but also donating whatever is left over at the end of the year to a charity. I will probably be making $5 bets on these games or less, it really depends on how much capitol I start with so its not as though these charities be getting much even if my formula turns out successful, but it really sounds like an interesting way of doing it. I do not exactly know which charity right now. I was either going to go with make a wish, or habitat for humanity. I am a fan of donating and being able to actually see outcomes. I am not saying that donating to larger charities like Susan G Komen are bad, it is just that when you donate to charities like that you usually do not get to see the research being done, or direct effect from the donations. I have partnered with make-a-wish before and I actually got the chance to meet the little boy who's wish we had the pleasure to make happen. That was a neat experience. Yes, this has nothing to do with statistics, and yes, I didn't even touch my formula today. Sometimes one needs to think bigger than ones self, and today I had that thought.
Not only did I think of putting real money down but also donating whatever is left over at the end of the year to a charity. I will probably be making $5 bets on these games or less, it really depends on how much capitol I start with so its not as though these charities be getting much even if my formula turns out successful, but it really sounds like an interesting way of doing it. I do not exactly know which charity right now. I was either going to go with make a wish, or habitat for humanity. I am a fan of donating and being able to actually see outcomes. I am not saying that donating to larger charities like Susan G Komen are bad, it is just that when you donate to charities like that you usually do not get to see the research being done, or direct effect from the donations. I have partnered with make-a-wish before and I actually got the chance to meet the little boy who's wish we had the pleasure to make happen. That was a neat experience. Yes, this has nothing to do with statistics, and yes, I didn't even touch my formula today. Sometimes one needs to think bigger than ones self, and today I had that thought.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Busiest off day I've had in a while
Just got done grading College Algebra tests for 3 hours. Never again will I put so many questions on a test. I didn't get to touch any stats today, or even day dream about the possibilities of my predictions. I hit the ground running, which made me think of how spring training started in MLB. Man am I ever ready to start this season.
The beautiful day called for the kids and I to take a trip to the local park. We horsed around for a while and then I noticed the high school baseball team was starting to practice in their field attached to the park. There is nothing so pure than high school sports, well, at least I like to think that anyway. I'm going to try and hit up some high school games this year to see how the kids do during the game. I know at my age I would just sit and watch the game in its entirety, but I do not think my kids inherited that gene. Oh well, I feel the more I expose them to it the higher possibility they will fall in love like I did, as long as I don't push it to hard. Nothings worse than that dad coach whose kid hates whatever sport he is coaching.
Well, enough rambling, happy valentines day.
The beautiful day called for the kids and I to take a trip to the local park. We horsed around for a while and then I noticed the high school baseball team was starting to practice in their field attached to the park. There is nothing so pure than high school sports, well, at least I like to think that anyway. I'm going to try and hit up some high school games this year to see how the kids do during the game. I know at my age I would just sit and watch the game in its entirety, but I do not think my kids inherited that gene. Oh well, I feel the more I expose them to it the higher possibility they will fall in love like I did, as long as I don't push it to hard. Nothings worse than that dad coach whose kid hates whatever sport he is coaching.
Well, enough rambling, happy valentines day.
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Saint Valentine, patron saint of chocolate, flowers, candy, and Zales...GTM
Well had a eureka moment of sorts last night. Got all of my games into excel with all of their factors and finally got to play with them in my stat software. So it turns out I had to do some transforming of the independent variables. Pretty weird, don't know if it will work once I start picking games and on top of that I also have a few factors that I thought really wouldn't mean much actually turn out to be significant. As of now the way my formula is set up it will show me what games should have a larger difference in Runs scored, but it will not tell me which team should win or lose. I have to back track it and look at each teams stats to see which one is the weaker or stronger team. This seems like a lot of work, and I think I can just make an algorithm to work it out, but I don't want to deal with it until it gets so annoying doing it by hand that I want to put forth more work. Now I've just got to dig up some games from years past to work it out on to see how well the equation works.
I hope everyone has an awesome Valentines day. I will be buying mlb.tv online for my vday gift and with this gift I will be assured to not have a girlfriend till October. Think of how much that one $120 payment will save me in the long run. I believe Ayn Rand put it best "Wealth is the product of man's ability to think". By having 24 access to a full season of games I believe I will be able to think 10 times more clear than having just one woman....or two.
I hope everyone has an awesome Valentines day. I will be buying mlb.tv online for my vday gift and with this gift I will be assured to not have a girlfriend till October. Think of how much that one $120 payment will save me in the long run. I believe Ayn Rand put it best "Wealth is the product of man's ability to think". By having 24 access to a full season of games I believe I will be able to think 10 times more clear than having just one woman....or two.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Nothing Statistical about this one
The SEC has made a change in rules to their tournament at the end of the year that there now a 20 second clock between pitches and a 90 second clock between innings. First off, I do not understand the entirety of the rule, I just know that overall pitchers and batters have less time between pitches and innings. I think if the pitcher takes to long he gets assessed a ball, and if the hitter isn't in the box by a certain time he gets a strike.
I consider myself a traditionalist when it comes to baseball. I have never liked the American League because of the designated hitter and I feel college baseball is done a disservice by using aluminum bats. That said, I really dislike this rule. When I think of watching a game on t.v. or in person I love to see the battle within the battle. One of those is the mental battle between hitter and pitcher. This will change that. Now it adds a whole new angle of time into the equation that I honestly dislike.
The greatest part about baseball is there is no time, it is one of the few things that separates it from most sports. If one wants a fast paced game then switch the channel, I feel a true baseball fan wouldn't care how long it took. There is this nice, almost southerly, ebb and flow to baseball that one cannot get from watching basketball or football. Especially today in this fast paced world where we can gain any information instantaneously on our cell phones it is nice to be given this moment of suspense that the pitcher holds in his hand.
I envision a time clock behind home plate ticking away between each strike or ball and out or the hitter getting on base. This is ridiculous. This is not what baseball was about. A perfect example why I do not like this is going from NCAA basketball to NBA basketball. College basketball has a longer shot clock, 35 seconds, and therefor each play has more time to develop and there is more of a dance that occurs with the players on the offense. NBA is more one and done when it comes to each possession with its 24 second clock. Yes, you get higher scoring games, due to a longer game and shorter clock, but you also take away a huge part of the game.
I know my little blog that no one reads will not change anything, but I just feel like I needed to get this off of my chest. If you want a shorter game then start watching a different game. Baseball was not meant to be played between time, it was meant to have its own time.
I consider myself a traditionalist when it comes to baseball. I have never liked the American League because of the designated hitter and I feel college baseball is done a disservice by using aluminum bats. That said, I really dislike this rule. When I think of watching a game on t.v. or in person I love to see the battle within the battle. One of those is the mental battle between hitter and pitcher. This will change that. Now it adds a whole new angle of time into the equation that I honestly dislike.
The greatest part about baseball is there is no time, it is one of the few things that separates it from most sports. If one wants a fast paced game then switch the channel, I feel a true baseball fan wouldn't care how long it took. There is this nice, almost southerly, ebb and flow to baseball that one cannot get from watching basketball or football. Especially today in this fast paced world where we can gain any information instantaneously on our cell phones it is nice to be given this moment of suspense that the pitcher holds in his hand.
I envision a time clock behind home plate ticking away between each strike or ball and out or the hitter getting on base. This is ridiculous. This is not what baseball was about. A perfect example why I do not like this is going from NCAA basketball to NBA basketball. College basketball has a longer shot clock, 35 seconds, and therefor each play has more time to develop and there is more of a dance that occurs with the players on the offense. NBA is more one and done when it comes to each possession with its 24 second clock. Yes, you get higher scoring games, due to a longer game and shorter clock, but you also take away a huge part of the game.
I know my little blog that no one reads will not change anything, but I just feel like I needed to get this off of my chest. If you want a shorter game then start watching a different game. Baseball was not meant to be played between time, it was meant to have its own time.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Taking an off day.
Didn't work on my stats today. Just like working out you need off days, and I have a good feeling once the season starts I will not have many. A friend at work gave me his roku. I am so pumped because now I can watch mlb.tv on my actual tv this season. Yes, I still have an old tv that weighs 200lbs and has no HD inputs. But it was free and it is really really hard to beat free. So now I just have to scrounge up the $120 for the year subscription. Sounds like a perfect Valentines gift to myself. Well, because no one is reading this I do not have to apologize for rambling. haha.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Snowday.....no, not that type of snow Mr. Strawberry
So I found my Applied Linear Statistical Models book in my closet today. I had looked everywhere for this book because I need to reference it on some of the harder Regression. It was honestly like Christmas day for a nerd when I opened my closet door. I also found some other old stat books that might help me get super nerdy, but like my description says under the title I want my formula as easy as possible with the best outcomes as possible.
Me and the kiddos did manage to get some sledding in and we also managed to make the worlds best hot cocoa. I finally got to throw in some data into my stat program to run some basic regression with around 40 games variables. So far its looking good, a few factors had significance and my r-square isn't to shabby for just starting out. A lot better than my last try at this. I really won't know until I get the formula made up and test it on some games that were not from last season.
Guess that's it for today, I finally get to go back to work tomorrow because the snow is melting away. I will finally get some long needed grading done. Pretty sad when you're looking forward to grading.
Me and the kiddos did manage to get some sledding in and we also managed to make the worlds best hot cocoa. I finally got to throw in some data into my stat program to run some basic regression with around 40 games variables. So far its looking good, a few factors had significance and my r-square isn't to shabby for just starting out. A lot better than my last try at this. I really won't know until I get the formula made up and test it on some games that were not from last season.
Guess that's it for today, I finally get to go back to work tomorrow because the snow is melting away. I will finally get some long needed grading done. Pretty sad when you're looking forward to grading.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Outlier? Thats impossible, i think she is compulisve.
Snow day, kids and myself are out of school. If you have ever been in a small snowed in condo with a 4 and 6 year old then you know how I'm feeling right now. Well, actually the kids are finally in bed, so I'm feeling a lot better at the moment. So I got a little more done today. It is taking me a while because out of the 2430 regular season games last year I've chosen 100 at random to see what to dig deeper into with factor wise and it is causing grueling copy and paste marathons on the laptop. Plus I'm using a laptop with no mouse. You would think with as fast as technology evolves for the better than the sensor pad would be better than it was 10 years ago, but it isn't. Well, I'm done whining for now.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Moneyball and MJG
So I put some more time into collecting data today. I'm sure I could probably pay to get some of this stuff but I am a poor lonesome teacher that would rather collect it and enjoy some White Stripes in the background as I copy and paste in excel for an hour. My main factors so far have been spread of past games and runs and such, but as I'm putting some of these games in it looks as though starting pitching is a bigger factor than I expected. I will prob put that in after i have what I'm doing now done. I guess it makes sense that starting pitching would make a difference, but what I've noticed is that sometimes what is common sense isn't actually the correct sense. Especially when it comes to betting trends which I hope is where all of this will lead to. Well back to excel repetition.
Monday, February 7, 2011
My name is Robert and I love sports statistics
I have developed this blog to just jot down notes and such while I develop a formula for predicting outcomes for the upcoming baseball season. My goal is to get a formula that will pick certain games 60% of the time. I know this will be tough, but I think it is a good goal to have in mind. I started collecting data last week and am trying to finagle some factors to throw into my regression equation. This is a good starting point, and in turn my main goal is to keep the formula as straight forward as possible. There is nothing worse than these intricate formulas that work no better than a basic formula with just one or two variables. Well, you can enjoy the journey if you wish. Up till the season start I will be using the blog to go over tweaks and what not, and maybe some outcomes with past data, but we won't hit the grindstone till the season starts in April. This is when I plan to give picks as they come given the formula is confident enough to choose them and see how it works out.
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