I went 2 for 3 yesterday with my only loss being the Tampa game. Ugh. Tampa did have a chance to tie it up in the 9th so at least it was a close game. The Milwaukee game went as planned, Garza gave up hits along with runs and Narveson pitched like he did his first outing allowing 6h 9ks and 0 runs over 7 innings. The bullpen for the brewers closed up shop. Cleveland squeaked out a victory and I am glad I didn't give the points. Bradley's error was costly as he let the eventual game winning run home. This puts me at 15 Wins and 11 Losses. My money total is now at $565.08. I also was right about the night game in San Fran. Great game and I picked the over under correctly. That puts me at 2 right and 1 wrong with o/u.
Today I am just going to pick the night game because I have had so much to do today and this won't take as long to research.
Pick NYY (-1.5 +147) at Boston
Yea, I'm picking the Yankees. How could you pick Boston if you had to money on the line? Beckett is continuing his torturous 2010 campaign. Last year vs the Yankees he put up a 10.04 ERA over 26 innings. He also had a 5.43 ERA at home. Sabathia so far has been lights out in his first 2 starts. Carrying a WHIP of .85, giving up just 3 walks and 2 ER. He did have a higher than average ERA vs the BoSox last year at 3.96 but even if he continues at that pace I don't think it will matter. The Yankees offense should take over in this game and bring the series victory to New York. I am worried about giving up the points on this game. I think it might be a close one but it just seems that the offense for NYY will put up enough to cruise to an easy victory.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Saturday, April 9, 2011
April 9th picks
Was 3 for 3 at sucking yesterday. It was a good day though, got some fishing in and relaxed with my grandpa on the patio while we grilled up what we caught. Those 3 losses put me at 13 Wins and 10 Losses and brought my money total to $467.58. If I would have gone with the moneyline on the Rockies and Marlins game I would have made money. I think I need to get more experience to see when I should take the points or take the win. Boston finally pulled out a win, which if you're reading this Noble you were correct. 1 for 7 isn't bad.....Burn hahaha. True burn on me though because I picked the Yankees and I think if you asked me again today I would have picked them again. They both had horrendous pitching giving up 6 earned runs apiece by the starters. The bullpen is what gave the Yanks the loss. The Florida Houston game had some great pitching. Both starters went at least 7 innings and gave up 3 runs total. Rodriguez for Houston let the Marlins get on base but the Marlins just didn't capitalize leaving 8 men on. I just don't want to mention my Colorado pick. I will never mention that I am confident on a pick again.
Today's picks.
Pick Milwaukee(Narveson) vs Chicago Cubs(Garza) Moneyline -113
Potential: $88.50
Narveson has gone 3 and 0 against the cubs in 9 starts, both bullpens are iffy and have given up losses so far this season. I think it being in Milwaukee, one of the most fun cities to pronounce, and also if Narveson can stay on the mound, which out of 28 games started last year he only made it through the 7th inning 4 times, they could pull it off. Garza gave up 12 singles to Pittsburgh in his last outing and if he continues to give up contact like that then Milwaukee will not just be hitting singles.
Pick Tampa Bay (W. Davis) at Chicago White Sox (Humber) Moneyline +100
Potential: $100
You will be able to tell from this next stat that I do not have my kids this weekend. Over the past 3 years coming of a streak of 3 or more losses followed by a win the next game, the following game after that win Tampa Bay has won 14 out of 22 times. The White Sox have a pattern of Win Win Loss Loss Win Win Loss and if we follow this pattern the next logical outcome should be Loss. Haha. More logically the Sox are putting up a new kid in Humber and I think the Rays will make a turn for the better with Ramirez gone. Wade Davis has won the 2 games he has started against the sox posting a 2.19 era. I haven't done well betting for Tampa so hopefully this will change.
Pick Cleveland(Masterson) at Seattle(Fister) Moneyline +109
Potential: $109
When developing my formula for betting on games the biggest factor was offense. Defense or ERA did not really factor that well into the formula and just based off of offense Cleveland should pick up this game. 44 runs over 7 games and on top of that putting up 12 runs last night. Last year Cleveland only won 6 games by 10 or more runs and out of those 6 they followed it up with a win. Of course this isn't the same team so far.
I think the game to watch will be the San Francisco vs. St. Louis game. Not just because I am a Cards fan but because I am a fan of good pitching. These 2 Starters could have you on the edge of your seat with a low scoring nail biter. Garcia and Cain were close to perfect their first two outings, neither giving up a run and both giving up 9 hits total (4 for Garcia and 5 for Cain) and just 2 walks, each by Garcia. I want to bet on the under at 7.5. So far on my little o/u side bets I am 1 for 2 and I think they might start becoming a habit.
Today's picks.
Pick Milwaukee(Narveson) vs Chicago Cubs(Garza) Moneyline -113
Potential: $88.50
Narveson has gone 3 and 0 against the cubs in 9 starts, both bullpens are iffy and have given up losses so far this season. I think it being in Milwaukee, one of the most fun cities to pronounce, and also if Narveson can stay on the mound, which out of 28 games started last year he only made it through the 7th inning 4 times, they could pull it off. Garza gave up 12 singles to Pittsburgh in his last outing and if he continues to give up contact like that then Milwaukee will not just be hitting singles.
Pick Tampa Bay (W. Davis) at Chicago White Sox (Humber) Moneyline +100
Potential: $100
You will be able to tell from this next stat that I do not have my kids this weekend. Over the past 3 years coming of a streak of 3 or more losses followed by a win the next game, the following game after that win Tampa Bay has won 14 out of 22 times. The White Sox have a pattern of Win Win Loss Loss Win Win Loss and if we follow this pattern the next logical outcome should be Loss. Haha. More logically the Sox are putting up a new kid in Humber and I think the Rays will make a turn for the better with Ramirez gone. Wade Davis has won the 2 games he has started against the sox posting a 2.19 era. I haven't done well betting for Tampa so hopefully this will change.
Pick Cleveland(Masterson) at Seattle(Fister) Moneyline +109
Potential: $109
When developing my formula for betting on games the biggest factor was offense. Defense or ERA did not really factor that well into the formula and just based off of offense Cleveland should pick up this game. 44 runs over 7 games and on top of that putting up 12 runs last night. Last year Cleveland only won 6 games by 10 or more runs and out of those 6 they followed it up with a win. Of course this isn't the same team so far.
I think the game to watch will be the San Francisco vs. St. Louis game. Not just because I am a Cards fan but because I am a fan of good pitching. These 2 Starters could have you on the edge of your seat with a low scoring nail biter. Garcia and Cain were close to perfect their first two outings, neither giving up a run and both giving up 9 hits total (4 for Garcia and 5 for Cain) and just 2 walks, each by Garcia. I want to bet on the under at 7.5. So far on my little o/u side bets I am 1 for 2 and I think they might start becoming a habit.
Friday, April 8, 2011
April 8th Picks
I went 3 for 3 yesterday. That puts my Wins at 13 and Losses at 7. Using the $100 a game betting total that puts my winnings at $767.58 on the season making my monopoly money rate of return to be 38.38%. Not bad, wish it was real money haha. I was off on my Philly pick, Halladay was Halladay but Niese got rocked and it proves that I should never bet the over under. I was also wrong about Cincy's young starter LeCure, he put up a great game but the Astros managed to pull it off. Tampa, poor Tampa, they did exactly what I thought they would do.
Pick NYY at Boston (Moneyline +126)
Why do I like seeing Boston lose. I do not think they will be able to put up more runs that the Yankees line up, even though they will be going against a rival and they will be at home. Both pitchers had horrible starts and if that continues the Yankee line up will be able to devour Lackey.
Pick Florida at Houston (Run Line -1.5 +147)
Rodriguez for Houston got lit up for 7 runs his first outing. Nolasco gave up 2 over 7 innings. I think Florida can put up some runs if they can get on base. Houston got their first win yesterday and I just don't see this becoming a streak.
Pick Colorado at Pittsburgh (Run Line -1.5 +128)
I am most confident about this pick. I don't know if that mean anything but I think De La Rosa for Colorado will be able to shut down the Pirates offense and the bull pen for Colorado has only given up 3 runs over their first 4 games. I think it will be low scoring unless Colorado gets hot and I would take the over at 8. Not giving up on my o/u guesses haha.
Pick NYY at Boston (Moneyline +126)
Why do I like seeing Boston lose. I do not think they will be able to put up more runs that the Yankees line up, even though they will be going against a rival and they will be at home. Both pitchers had horrible starts and if that continues the Yankee line up will be able to devour Lackey.
Pick Florida at Houston (Run Line -1.5 +147)
Rodriguez for Houston got lit up for 7 runs his first outing. Nolasco gave up 2 over 7 innings. I think Florida can put up some runs if they can get on base. Houston got their first win yesterday and I just don't see this becoming a streak.
Pick Colorado at Pittsburgh (Run Line -1.5 +128)
I am most confident about this pick. I don't know if that mean anything but I think De La Rosa for Colorado will be able to shut down the Pirates offense and the bull pen for Colorado has only given up 3 runs over their first 4 games. I think it will be low scoring unless Colorado gets hot and I would take the over at 8. Not giving up on my o/u guesses haha.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
April 7th picks. Took April 6th off
So I have decided to actually go back and see how much I would have made so far off my picks using teamrankings.com but I had to change one game to make this work. The Atlanta-Milwaukee game on April 4th had a different run-line on yahoo so I just threw it out as a push. This actually brings my totals to 10Wins to 7Losses, this includes the April 5th picks were I was right on 2 out of the 4 games. I hypothetically bet $100 on each game, it makes the odds easier to calculate. Using this, I have $1127.84 in winnings, but I have spent $700 on my lost bets so therefore my total winnings are $427.84. With 17 games played, this means I have put up a $1700 investment and made $427.84 over the top. I will take a 25% rate of return on an investment. Of course this is just over 17 games and if I continue with 3 games a day for lets say 6 days a week that will be roughly about 400 more games to bet on as long as I don't get bored with this at some point and realize I'm spending way to much time, and in all actuallity am creating a negative rate of return if time does actually equal money.
So from here on out I am going to either bet the run line or money line. I will post also how much I will make per bet if won given I put up $100. Here is a good little intro if you have no idea what I am talking about http://casinogambling.about.com/od/racesports/a/baseball.htm I have to admit that sometimes I have to google stuff like this because of all the different betting lingo.
Pick Houston at Reds (Money line +133)
Profit $133
Houston has Myers on the mound who is their #1 starter and he is going agaist LeCure who is making his 6th start in the majors and first this season and out of those 6 starts he had a 5.31 era. Houstons record looks crappy but they went up against The Phillies top three starters right out of the gate. I think this game will turn them around or at minimum give them that much needed win.
Pick Philadelphia(-1.5) vs. NY Mets (Run line +115)
Profit $115
I think this is going to come down to a pitchers duel. In thinking that I should go with the moneyline but I think if Philly can get into the Mets bullpen they should be able to put up some runs. Halladay should be electric, but The Mets have been putting big numbers up on the board as well. Niese, the starter for NYM, had an ERA of 2.14 with his 3 starts against the Phillies last year so if that keeps up we should see low run. I don't usually do o/u, but the 7.5 is enticing. I'm thinking 3-1 phillies.
Chicago White Sox vs The Rays (Moneyline -109)
Profit $91.74
Poor Tampa. They are my A.L. team and man they are stinking it up right now. I think that will continue in this game. The White Sox have knocked in 40 runs over the past 5 games against better teams. Price is on the mound for Tampa, but if those bats don't turn around for the Rays I don't think it would make a difference who was out there.
So from here on out I am going to either bet the run line or money line. I will post also how much I will make per bet if won given I put up $100. Here is a good little intro if you have no idea what I am talking about http://casinogambling.about.com/od/racesports/a/baseball.htm I have to admit that sometimes I have to google stuff like this because of all the different betting lingo.
Pick Houston at Reds (Money line +133)
Profit $133
Houston has Myers on the mound who is their #1 starter and he is going agaist LeCure who is making his 6th start in the majors and first this season and out of those 6 starts he had a 5.31 era. Houstons record looks crappy but they went up against The Phillies top three starters right out of the gate. I think this game will turn them around or at minimum give them that much needed win.
Pick Philadelphia(-1.5) vs. NY Mets (Run line +115)
Profit $115
I think this is going to come down to a pitchers duel. In thinking that I should go with the moneyline but I think if Philly can get into the Mets bullpen they should be able to put up some runs. Halladay should be electric, but The Mets have been putting big numbers up on the board as well. Niese, the starter for NYM, had an ERA of 2.14 with his 3 starts against the Phillies last year so if that keeps up we should see low run. I don't usually do o/u, but the 7.5 is enticing. I'm thinking 3-1 phillies.
Chicago White Sox vs The Rays (Moneyline -109)
Profit $91.74
Poor Tampa. They are my A.L. team and man they are stinking it up right now. I think that will continue in this game. The White Sox have knocked in 40 runs over the past 5 games against better teams. Price is on the mound for Tampa, but if those bats don't turn around for the Rays I don't think it would make a difference who was out there.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
April 5th picks
Getting 3 out of 3 picks right yesterday makes me feel good. Wishing I had money on those games makes me feel a little down. This brings my wins to 9 on the season and losses to 5, against the spread. Recapping yesterdays picks, the Balitmore game was almost dead on how I covered it. Porcello gave up his 5 earned runs and Baltimore cruised by with a win against the Tigers. I was wrong about the ATL game because the pitcher for Milwaukee, Narveson, threw a gem (6 innings, 3 hits, 0 earned runs). It was the Bullpen that caved and let The Braves squeak by with a W. In the Texas game Holland did get the W by only giving up 3 runs in 6 innings, but he can thank that Texas lineup for coming through for him. Bedard did the same thing for Seattle and got the L. Texas is on Fiiiiire.
So, on to todays picks. Trying something a little different and going to pick 4 games because there are so many on the schedule ( I know I said I was going to do an odd number, but maybe one will rain out).
Pick Tampa(+1.5) vs LAA.
The Rays have to come out of this funk at some point or another, why not against a team that has just as many losses? I think this game could stay close and if so then I will take the points. Hoping (which is never good) The Angels don't take over this game. Weaver is a beast.
Pick Boston (-1.5) at Cleveland
Boston is coming off a season opening sweep and I believe that Josh Beckett has something to prove off such a dismal season last year. Cleveland is putting a young gun on the mound and I think that today will be Bostons time to get back on track for the season. I think that is what the city of Cleveland is meant to do.
Pick Braves (+1.5) at Brewers
I'm picking the Braves because of pitching and the points help. Derek Lowe is on the mound and the relief pitching for ATL has been solid so far. Gallardado is not a bad pitcher, giving up just 2 runs over 6 innings in his first outing, but I am going to ride this ATL bandwagon for a little while.
Pick Rockies(-1.5) vs Dodgers
I thought this was going to be my wild card pick, but apparently Vegas feels that the Rockies have a legit chance at this game as well as I do. The Rockies relief pitching has been solid over the two games they have played only giving up 2 runs, while the dodgers relief has let 7 players cross the plate over 3 games. Now, again, these are small sample sizes and it wouldn't be out of the ordinary for this game to go either way. I was hoping to get the points though.
So, on to todays picks. Trying something a little different and going to pick 4 games because there are so many on the schedule ( I know I said I was going to do an odd number, but maybe one will rain out).
Pick Tampa(+1.5) vs LAA.
The Rays have to come out of this funk at some point or another, why not against a team that has just as many losses? I think this game could stay close and if so then I will take the points. Hoping (which is never good) The Angels don't take over this game. Weaver is a beast.
Pick Boston (-1.5) at Cleveland
Boston is coming off a season opening sweep and I believe that Josh Beckett has something to prove off such a dismal season last year. Cleveland is putting a young gun on the mound and I think that today will be Bostons time to get back on track for the season. I think that is what the city of Cleveland is meant to do.
Pick Braves (+1.5) at Brewers
I'm picking the Braves because of pitching and the points help. Derek Lowe is on the mound and the relief pitching for ATL has been solid so far. Gallardado is not a bad pitcher, giving up just 2 runs over 6 innings in his first outing, but I am going to ride this ATL bandwagon for a little while.
Pick Rockies(-1.5) vs Dodgers
I thought this was going to be my wild card pick, but apparently Vegas feels that the Rockies have a legit chance at this game as well as I do. The Rockies relief pitching has been solid over the two games they have played only giving up 2 runs, while the dodgers relief has let 7 players cross the plate over 3 games. Now, again, these are small sample sizes and it wouldn't be out of the ordinary for this game to go either way. I was hoping to get the points though.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
April 4th picks
Who got 2 out of 3 picks right yesterday....This guy. That brings my Wins to 6 and my losses to 5 against the spread. I think I will be riding the Jaime Garcia bandwagon this season. I like this kid, I like that he has the potential to go 9 innings and I really think he should be the #2 starter for STL. Whats up with the Red Sox, they do have a perfect season going, just a Detroit Lions perfect, not a Patriots perfect. So on to tomorrows picks. Getting scary now because we are into the 3rd and 4th pitchers. Hopefully it will just be a battle of offenses.
Pick Baltimore(-1.5) vs Detroit
Detroit has given up 16 runs so far in the first 2 games. I know that isn't a big deal with such a small sample size, but that was with their best pitching on the mound. Now we are getting to their 3rd pitcher in Rick Porcello who had a rough April last year, minus one start. He also held above a 5 era the whole season minus 3 games last year. Conversly Baltimore has only given up 3 runs in 3 games and swept The Rays in St. Pete. So just based off momentum I'm goin with Baltimore....yea, im so good at this haha.
Pick Atlanta(+1.5) at Milwaukee
Atlanta has shown they can hit against crappy pitching and they are going against the Brewers 4th starter, but really the 5th, with Grienke hurt Narveson jumped up a spot. Beachy for the Braves only started 3 games last year, but he did keep his era in those games down to 3.00. Who knows, I'm just going with ATL because I think they have the ability to put more runs on the board.
Pick Texas(-1.5) vs Seattle.
This Holland kid pitching for Texas had a 2.32 era at home last year. Lets not talk about the road era. Plus 28 ks in 31 inning and only gave up 8 earned runs. Again, this is a small sample size of just 31 innings but that is what I will be going off of. He also pitched better at night and this will be a night game. Texas has also knocked in 26 runs over 3 games against the Red Sox. I hope they don't play down to their competition in Seattle. If they are the same offensive team that shows up then Texas should have no prob putting up the W. Seattle is putting up Bedard who didn't have any playing time last year, but he did have a decent spring training keeping his era at 3.15.
Pick Baltimore(-1.5) vs Detroit
Detroit has given up 16 runs so far in the first 2 games. I know that isn't a big deal with such a small sample size, but that was with their best pitching on the mound. Now we are getting to their 3rd pitcher in Rick Porcello who had a rough April last year, minus one start. He also held above a 5 era the whole season minus 3 games last year. Conversly Baltimore has only given up 3 runs in 3 games and swept The Rays in St. Pete. So just based off momentum I'm goin with Baltimore....yea, im so good at this haha.
Pick Atlanta(+1.5) at Milwaukee
Atlanta has shown they can hit against crappy pitching and they are going against the Brewers 4th starter, but really the 5th, with Grienke hurt Narveson jumped up a spot. Beachy for the Braves only started 3 games last year, but he did keep his era in those games down to 3.00. Who knows, I'm just going with ATL because I think they have the ability to put more runs on the board.
Pick Texas(-1.5) vs Seattle.
This Holland kid pitching for Texas had a 2.32 era at home last year. Lets not talk about the road era. Plus 28 ks in 31 inning and only gave up 8 earned runs. Again, this is a small sample size of just 31 innings but that is what I will be going off of. He also pitched better at night and this will be a night game. Texas has also knocked in 26 runs over 3 games against the Red Sox. I hope they don't play down to their competition in Seattle. If they are the same offensive team that shows up then Texas should have no prob putting up the W. Seattle is putting up Bedard who didn't have any playing time last year, but he did have a decent spring training keeping his era at 3.15.
April 3rd Picks
Trying to get this in before some of these games start.
Got 2 out of 3 right yesterday. That brings my Wins to 4 and my losses to 4. I am even on the season. What did I say about Matt Cain. Had a great start, I really like this guy. Of course its easy to like a guy with that kind of consecutive scoreless innings.
Pick Cardinals (-1.5) vs. Padres
Cards aren't going to lose 3 in a row at home. Jaime Garcia is a great up and coming pitcher. Had some great stats and I mentioned him in a blog a few months back about cheap pitchers. I just hope they win by more than 1.
Pick Boston (-1.5) at Texas
Clay Buchholz. Enough said, unless Texas shows up with that offense again.
Dodgers (-1.5) vs Giants
I am doing this purely out of spite for Zito. I don't think L.A. wants to be embarresed 2 days in a row (just like my Cards)
Just in time. 3 minutes till the first two games start.
Got 2 out of 3 right yesterday. That brings my Wins to 4 and my losses to 4. I am even on the season. What did I say about Matt Cain. Had a great start, I really like this guy. Of course its easy to like a guy with that kind of consecutive scoreless innings.
Pick Cardinals (-1.5) vs. Padres
Cards aren't going to lose 3 in a row at home. Jaime Garcia is a great up and coming pitcher. Had some great stats and I mentioned him in a blog a few months back about cheap pitchers. I just hope they win by more than 1.
Pick Boston (-1.5) at Texas
Clay Buchholz. Enough said, unless Texas shows up with that offense again.
Dodgers (-1.5) vs Giants
I am doing this purely out of spite for Zito. I don't think L.A. wants to be embarresed 2 days in a row (just like my Cards)
Just in time. 3 minutes till the first two games start.
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