I was 2 for 2 last night....really 3 for 3 if I wouldn't have been a pansy about the Angels game. I did snag the Giants game thanks to a top of the 9th Pat Burrell homer. Still didn't get the Giants the win, but it did get the win in Vegas. I chose the Cards game correctly but not on the correct logic. Carp came through again, giving up just 2 hits, 2 earned runs and walking just 2 hitters over 7 innings. Not bad work. Turns out the bull pen had some problems that led to the demise of my team, but the win for my blog.
From now on I will decide an odd amount of games. I don't like ties in sports, non-american, therefor I will be picking odd from here on out.
Pick Rays (-1.5) vs. Orioles
I like Price on the mound. This will be Manny and Johnny Damon's intro to the Rays fans in St. Pete. I have a feeling Manny will be Manny and bring in some RBI's. Scary part is the iffy bullpen. Solid last year but they lost a lot relievers.
Phillies (-1.5) vs. Astros
Roy Halladay...enough said, yet I will continue. Phills lost some fire power in there line up from last year but I think they have enough to beat the stros by 2. Can you name 3 players in the astros line up....Berkman isn't there anymore. haha.
Dodgers (-1.5) vs Giants
Johnathan Sanchez has not gone over 4 innings as a starter in his first game of the past 3 seasons. Chad Billingsly for the Dodgers has been more solid in his starts in April. I think the Dodgers squeaked out a win against a much better pitcher yesterday, so they are ready to do work today.
No underdogs..hmm..guess I'll throw in who I want to pick as an underdog but am not officially picking.
I would pick Rangers(+1.5) vs Red Sox. Its opening day and they are back in Texas after winning the pennant. Sure the Red Sox are good, but this is just one game.
Ramblings of a stat nerd working his way to creating an equation that will change the way we view baseball and doing it the easiest way possible as only a mathematician should.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Opening Night Games
I can't use my formula to predict games until about 20 have been played, so I am just going to have fun and pick some with what I hope is a little sound logic. I am using the odds off of sports.yahoo.com.
Pick Giants (1.5) at the Dodgers.
Lincecum is going against Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers. I like Lincecum, even though he did have a higher ERA last year than Clayton. Tim has had really good Aprils over the past 3 years (12 Wins to 4 Losses). And really, other than that there isn't much to go on other than he is a member of the reigning world champs. Clayton has 6 Wins to 5 losses for his last three springs.
Pick Padres (1.5) at the Cardinals.
I'm betting against my team, which will probably lead to my doom. It doesn't really makes sense either because the Cards ace Carpenter is going against a Tim Stauffer, a new starting pitcher that is making his transition still to the starting position as he spent most of last year in the relief. I am just pessimistic about Carps health. I hope he doesn't get hurt and honestly because I have no money on the line I hope the Cards actually win.
Game I should probably add on just because it seems like a good bet is LAA (-1.5) at KCR. I'll know tomorrow anyway, haha.
Pick Giants (1.5) at the Dodgers.
Lincecum is going against Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers. I like Lincecum, even though he did have a higher ERA last year than Clayton. Tim has had really good Aprils over the past 3 years (12 Wins to 4 Losses). And really, other than that there isn't much to go on other than he is a member of the reigning world champs. Clayton has 6 Wins to 5 losses for his last three springs.
Pick Padres (1.5) at the Cardinals.
I'm betting against my team, which will probably lead to my doom. It doesn't really makes sense either because the Cards ace Carpenter is going against a Tim Stauffer, a new starting pitcher that is making his transition still to the starting position as he spent most of last year in the relief. I am just pessimistic about Carps health. I hope he doesn't get hurt and honestly because I have no money on the line I hope the Cards actually win.
Game I should probably add on just because it seems like a good bet is LAA (-1.5) at KCR. I'll know tomorrow anyway, haha.
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