So I failed on all my picks yesterday. I picked the right winner for two, but not the right vegas winner...... So now I have 2 wins to 3 losses. Hopefully this will improve as the season progresses. I am not going to pick a game that doesn't count either. Last night I would have pulled off at least one win if I counted my Rangers pick. So here are some picks for today.
Pick Cubs(-1.5) vs Pirates
Zombrano had a decent spring. The cubs are coming off a loss at home to the Pirates so they should have some fire in their bellies....."should" being the major word.
Pick Red Sox (+1.5) at Rangers
Colby Lewis is coming off a great year, but I have to take the runs on this one, with the Red Sox line up.
Giants (+1.5) at Dodgers
I like Matt Cain on the mound. This is all I'm really going on. I could have said, I liked Ted Lilly, which honestly I would have more logical reason to, but I'm not.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Thursday, March 31, 2011
April Fools Picks
I was 2 for 2 last night....really 3 for 3 if I wouldn't have been a pansy about the Angels game. I did snag the Giants game thanks to a top of the 9th Pat Burrell homer. Still didn't get the Giants the win, but it did get the win in Vegas. I chose the Cards game correctly but not on the correct logic. Carp came through again, giving up just 2 hits, 2 earned runs and walking just 2 hitters over 7 innings. Not bad work. Turns out the bull pen had some problems that led to the demise of my team, but the win for my blog.
From now on I will decide an odd amount of games. I don't like ties in sports, non-american, therefor I will be picking odd from here on out.
Pick Rays (-1.5) vs. Orioles
I like Price on the mound. This will be Manny and Johnny Damon's intro to the Rays fans in St. Pete. I have a feeling Manny will be Manny and bring in some RBI's. Scary part is the iffy bullpen. Solid last year but they lost a lot relievers.
Phillies (-1.5) vs. Astros
Roy Halladay...enough said, yet I will continue. Phills lost some fire power in there line up from last year but I think they have enough to beat the stros by 2. Can you name 3 players in the astros line up....Berkman isn't there anymore. haha.
Dodgers (-1.5) vs Giants
Johnathan Sanchez has not gone over 4 innings as a starter in his first game of the past 3 seasons. Chad Billingsly for the Dodgers has been more solid in his starts in April. I think the Dodgers squeaked out a win against a much better pitcher yesterday, so they are ready to do work today.
No underdogs..hmm..guess I'll throw in who I want to pick as an underdog but am not officially picking.
I would pick Rangers(+1.5) vs Red Sox. Its opening day and they are back in Texas after winning the pennant. Sure the Red Sox are good, but this is just one game.
From now on I will decide an odd amount of games. I don't like ties in sports, non-american, therefor I will be picking odd from here on out.
Pick Rays (-1.5) vs. Orioles
I like Price on the mound. This will be Manny and Johnny Damon's intro to the Rays fans in St. Pete. I have a feeling Manny will be Manny and bring in some RBI's. Scary part is the iffy bullpen. Solid last year but they lost a lot relievers.
Phillies (-1.5) vs. Astros
Roy Halladay...enough said, yet I will continue. Phills lost some fire power in there line up from last year but I think they have enough to beat the stros by 2. Can you name 3 players in the astros line up....Berkman isn't there anymore. haha.
Dodgers (-1.5) vs Giants
Johnathan Sanchez has not gone over 4 innings as a starter in his first game of the past 3 seasons. Chad Billingsly for the Dodgers has been more solid in his starts in April. I think the Dodgers squeaked out a win against a much better pitcher yesterday, so they are ready to do work today.
No underdogs..hmm..guess I'll throw in who I want to pick as an underdog but am not officially picking.
I would pick Rangers(+1.5) vs Red Sox. Its opening day and they are back in Texas after winning the pennant. Sure the Red Sox are good, but this is just one game.
Opening Night Games
I can't use my formula to predict games until about 20 have been played, so I am just going to have fun and pick some with what I hope is a little sound logic. I am using the odds off of sports.yahoo.com.
Pick Giants (1.5) at the Dodgers.
Lincecum is going against Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers. I like Lincecum, even though he did have a higher ERA last year than Clayton. Tim has had really good Aprils over the past 3 years (12 Wins to 4 Losses). And really, other than that there isn't much to go on other than he is a member of the reigning world champs. Clayton has 6 Wins to 5 losses for his last three springs.
Pick Padres (1.5) at the Cardinals.
I'm betting against my team, which will probably lead to my doom. It doesn't really makes sense either because the Cards ace Carpenter is going against a Tim Stauffer, a new starting pitcher that is making his transition still to the starting position as he spent most of last year in the relief. I am just pessimistic about Carps health. I hope he doesn't get hurt and honestly because I have no money on the line I hope the Cards actually win.
Game I should probably add on just because it seems like a good bet is LAA (-1.5) at KCR. I'll know tomorrow anyway, haha.
Pick Giants (1.5) at the Dodgers.
Lincecum is going against Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers. I like Lincecum, even though he did have a higher ERA last year than Clayton. Tim has had really good Aprils over the past 3 years (12 Wins to 4 Losses). And really, other than that there isn't much to go on other than he is a member of the reigning world champs. Clayton has 6 Wins to 5 losses for his last three springs.
Pick Padres (1.5) at the Cardinals.
I'm betting against my team, which will probably lead to my doom. It doesn't really makes sense either because the Cards ace Carpenter is going against a Tim Stauffer, a new starting pitcher that is making his transition still to the starting position as he spent most of last year in the relief. I am just pessimistic about Carps health. I hope he doesn't get hurt and honestly because I have no money on the line I hope the Cards actually win.
Game I should probably add on just because it seems like a good bet is LAA (-1.5) at KCR. I'll know tomorrow anyway, haha.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
PennyBall Catchers
Who should lead us behind the plate?
I'm making this a quick blog. Thought about doing outfielders tonight, but I really want to just keep it light and easy.
I went back and forth between Matt Wieters of Baltimore and Kurt Suzuki of Oakland. Their stats are really really close together. They differ in BA and SLG by only 10 percentage points, and OBP by 16% points. But as it should be, it came down to defense and it looks as though Mr. Wieters beats out Mr. Suzuki in about every category.
Catcher
Matt Wieters, Oakland Athletics. $400,000 in 2010
Mr. Wieters is a 6'5 right handed catcher out of Charleston South Carolina. 2010 was his first full season in the bigs since being drafted in the 1st round with the 5th pick overall of the 2007 draft out of Georgia Tech. Notable Yellow Jacket Draftees include, Mark Texiera, Nomar Garciaparra, and Del Pratt (1916 American League RBI leader).
Matt's offense wasn't that hot but he is a catcher, and that isn't what he is getting paid to do. He was 4th among catchers in the fielding percentage category, he had the lowest amount of passed balls (2) with a pretty bad pitching staff. His Caught Stealing Percentage was #2 at .312. Pretty good year as a catcher I would say. A big paycheck will be following its way into his bank account if he keeps up these numbers.
I'm making this a quick blog. Thought about doing outfielders tonight, but I really want to just keep it light and easy.
I went back and forth between Matt Wieters of Baltimore and Kurt Suzuki of Oakland. Their stats are really really close together. They differ in BA and SLG by only 10 percentage points, and OBP by 16% points. But as it should be, it came down to defense and it looks as though Mr. Wieters beats out Mr. Suzuki in about every category.
Catcher
Matt Wieters, Oakland Athletics. $400,000 in 2010
Mr. Wieters is a 6'5 right handed catcher out of Charleston South Carolina. 2010 was his first full season in the bigs since being drafted in the 1st round with the 5th pick overall of the 2007 draft out of Georgia Tech. Notable Yellow Jacket Draftees include, Mark Texiera, Nomar Garciaparra, and Del Pratt (1916 American League RBI leader).
Matt's offense wasn't that hot but he is a catcher, and that isn't what he is getting paid to do. He was 4th among catchers in the fielding percentage category, he had the lowest amount of passed balls (2) with a pretty bad pitching staff. His Caught Stealing Percentage was #2 at .312. Pretty good year as a catcher I would say. A big paycheck will be following its way into his bank account if he keeps up these numbers.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
PennyBall Infielders
So now the question is who would start for my Penny Penching All-Star Infield?
This time I am going to put a STAT reference guide at the bottom of the blog. So please don't feel lost when reading all the 2 to 3 letter abbreviations.
1st Base
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds. $525,000 in 2010.
Mr. Votto hails from America's Attic (aka Canada) and was drafted in the 2nd round with pick number 44 way back in 2002. He played college ball at Richview Collegiate Institute, the powerhouse of baseball from Canada. Not really, he is the first player to be drafted from that school.
Mr. Votto was any real easy pick for the infield. He won the NL MVP award for goodness sake. The Reds got an NL MVP for just $525,000. (The Rays paid $10,250,00 and got Carlos Pena. .196 BA, 158 SO, and .407 SLG). He was #2 in the league in SLG with .600, #2 in the league in OPS at 1.024, #2 BA at .324, #6 in Walks, #1 in OBP, #5 in HR, and #6 among First basemen in FPCT (Fielding percentage). Needless to say he had a ridiculous year. If I was making an all-star team I would put him at #1 due to his performance last year (If Pujols gets his contract negotiated I will stick him above Votto though, just because he has proven he can do these types of numbers over the long haul)
2nd Base
Martin Prado, Atlanta Braves. $440,000 in 2010.
This one was a tough one to decide for me. Gordon Beckham of the White Sox and Blake DeWitt of the Dodgers/Cubs kept popping up. I know Prado had a much better year but he only played around two thirds of his games at 2nd and the other two were full time second basemen. In the end I went with Prado just because he had a much better year offensively compared to the other two and I just had to put him on the list.
Prado is a product of Venezuela. He was taken in the 2001 Amateur draft. Prado posted a solid .307 BA which put him as the 3rd highest among 2nd basemen. He was 5th in SLG, 6th in OPS, and 2nd in XB among all 2nd Basemen. He was 9th in MVP voting and represented Atlanta in the All-Star game as well. The only negative is that he isn't the best fielder. That could have come from him moving around positions so much and having to adjust or just the fact that his offense will overshadow his defense. Either way he had a great year living on such a small budget.
Shortstop
Elvis Andus, Texas Rangers. $418,420 in 2010.
Mr. Andus hails from the same country as Prado and was also taken in the Amateur draft but in 2005 and not 2001. He had a magnificent year, and if it wasn't for Votto this would be the no-brain pick for the infield. 2010 was an All-Star year for Elvis and it also had him coming in 2nd for Rookie of the Year voting.
The first thing I looked at when picking my shortstop was some fielding stats. He was very solid in this department. The most solid player that wasn't making the big bucks really. He was at least 8th among his fellow Shortstops in FPCT, DP, and RF. To add to a good fielding year he had a great small ball offensive year. 5th among shortstops in OBP, tied for 1st with shortstops for steals which put him tied for 15thn overall in the League with 32. He is not a slugging hitter and it shows in his low SLG of .301. He had the 4th highest amount of Ground Balls hit in the league, yet only hit into 6 Double Plays all season. This was the lowest for a Shortstop with at least 600 plate appearances. He also got on base with walks coming in at #4 with his BB/PA ratio of .095. He might have had more steals, or at least been more successful if it hadn't been for a nagging injury during second half of the season and the fact that the Rangers didn't need the risk/reward of him getting caught or not towards the end as well.
Third Base
Mark Reynolds Arizona Diamondbacks. $833,333 in 2010.
I know what your thinking if you have made it this far into the blog and you kept track of low salaried 3rd baseman last year, "Why didn't this idiot pick Casey Mcghee?". I know I should have, Casey made less money last year and put up better numbers, but Mr. Reynolds is a stat nerds dream. Especially a stat nerd that hates the use of the batting average as a significance on how well a player performs. It is also my blog, and no one read it anyway so I can do what I want.
Mark is from Pikeville, KY, and he was drafted in the 16th round with the 476th pick overall by Arizona back in 2004. He had what some people would call an interesting year. He led the League in K's with 211, and that was down from 223 the year before. The next highest was David Wright with 161, but David also had 98 more plate appearances than Mark. He easily had the lowest BA among Shortstops at .198 and second in the league to Carlos Pena at .196.
So I know what your thinking, "Why in the world did you pick a guy who common sense says had a horrible year"? Well, turns out is wasn't that horrible. He got on base every other way you could try to get on base. He lead all 3rd basemen with 83 Walks, which put him 12th in the league. He also led 3rd basemen with the ever important Hit by Pitch statistic with 9. His SLG wasn't bad with .433. This tells us that when he did actually swing and hit the ball it at least got tattooed. My most favorite stat that he led 3d basemen with was P/PA (Pitches per Plate Appearance), which was 4.31. This means he has patience, maybe a little to much patience, but if he can develop the technique of just putting lumber on the ball then his numbers will rise. This is why I say I think he is a stat nerd dream, he has great potential because he has all the nerdy stats in place, now he just has to please the "common" stat guys. i.e. BA.
Well, do you think I overlooked anyone? Why do I even ask this, you have probably fallen asleep at this point or just really clicked on the link because you saw it on my facebook and thought "What is he doing instead of actual real work?".
References
BA - Batting Average
SO - Strike outs, sometimes referred to as K's.
SLG - Slugging percentage. google it if you do not know it.
OPS - On base percentage plus Slugging percentage
OBP - On base percentage
XB - Number of extra base hits. A base hit more than a single.
DP - Double plays fielded.
RF - Range Factor. You can google it, its just a way to grade fielders.
This time I am going to put a STAT reference guide at the bottom of the blog. So please don't feel lost when reading all the 2 to 3 letter abbreviations.
1st Base
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds. $525,000 in 2010.
Mr. Votto hails from America's Attic (aka Canada) and was drafted in the 2nd round with pick number 44 way back in 2002. He played college ball at Richview Collegiate Institute, the powerhouse of baseball from Canada. Not really, he is the first player to be drafted from that school.
Mr. Votto was any real easy pick for the infield. He won the NL MVP award for goodness sake. The Reds got an NL MVP for just $525,000. (The Rays paid $10,250,00 and got Carlos Pena. .196 BA, 158 SO, and .407 SLG). He was #2 in the league in SLG with .600, #2 in the league in OPS at 1.024, #2 BA at .324, #6 in Walks, #1 in OBP, #5 in HR, and #6 among First basemen in FPCT (Fielding percentage). Needless to say he had a ridiculous year. If I was making an all-star team I would put him at #1 due to his performance last year (If Pujols gets his contract negotiated I will stick him above Votto though, just because he has proven he can do these types of numbers over the long haul)
2nd Base
Martin Prado, Atlanta Braves. $440,000 in 2010.
This one was a tough one to decide for me. Gordon Beckham of the White Sox and Blake DeWitt of the Dodgers/Cubs kept popping up. I know Prado had a much better year but he only played around two thirds of his games at 2nd and the other two were full time second basemen. In the end I went with Prado just because he had a much better year offensively compared to the other two and I just had to put him on the list.
Prado is a product of Venezuela. He was taken in the 2001 Amateur draft. Prado posted a solid .307 BA which put him as the 3rd highest among 2nd basemen. He was 5th in SLG, 6th in OPS, and 2nd in XB among all 2nd Basemen. He was 9th in MVP voting and represented Atlanta in the All-Star game as well. The only negative is that he isn't the best fielder. That could have come from him moving around positions so much and having to adjust or just the fact that his offense will overshadow his defense. Either way he had a great year living on such a small budget.
Shortstop
Elvis Andus, Texas Rangers. $418,420 in 2010.
Mr. Andus hails from the same country as Prado and was also taken in the Amateur draft but in 2005 and not 2001. He had a magnificent year, and if it wasn't for Votto this would be the no-brain pick for the infield. 2010 was an All-Star year for Elvis and it also had him coming in 2nd for Rookie of the Year voting.
The first thing I looked at when picking my shortstop was some fielding stats. He was very solid in this department. The most solid player that wasn't making the big bucks really. He was at least 8th among his fellow Shortstops in FPCT, DP, and RF. To add to a good fielding year he had a great small ball offensive year. 5th among shortstops in OBP, tied for 1st with shortstops for steals which put him tied for 15thn overall in the League with 32. He is not a slugging hitter and it shows in his low SLG of .301. He had the 4th highest amount of Ground Balls hit in the league, yet only hit into 6 Double Plays all season. This was the lowest for a Shortstop with at least 600 plate appearances. He also got on base with walks coming in at #4 with his BB/PA ratio of .095. He might have had more steals, or at least been more successful if it hadn't been for a nagging injury during second half of the season and the fact that the Rangers didn't need the risk/reward of him getting caught or not towards the end as well.
Mark Reynolds Arizona Diamondbacks. $833,333 in 2010.
I know what your thinking if you have made it this far into the blog and you kept track of low salaried 3rd baseman last year, "Why didn't this idiot pick Casey Mcghee?". I know I should have, Casey made less money last year and put up better numbers, but Mr. Reynolds is a stat nerds dream. Especially a stat nerd that hates the use of the batting average as a significance on how well a player performs. It is also my blog, and no one read it anyway so I can do what I want.
Mark is from Pikeville, KY, and he was drafted in the 16th round with the 476th pick overall by Arizona back in 2004. He had what some people would call an interesting year. He led the League in K's with 211, and that was down from 223 the year before. The next highest was David Wright with 161, but David also had 98 more plate appearances than Mark. He easily had the lowest BA among Shortstops at .198 and second in the league to Carlos Pena at .196.
So I know what your thinking, "Why in the world did you pick a guy who common sense says had a horrible year"? Well, turns out is wasn't that horrible. He got on base every other way you could try to get on base. He lead all 3rd basemen with 83 Walks, which put him 12th in the league. He also led 3rd basemen with the ever important Hit by Pitch statistic with 9. His SLG wasn't bad with .433. This tells us that when he did actually swing and hit the ball it at least got tattooed. My most favorite stat that he led 3d basemen with was P/PA (Pitches per Plate Appearance), which was 4.31. This means he has patience, maybe a little to much patience, but if he can develop the technique of just putting lumber on the ball then his numbers will rise. This is why I say I think he is a stat nerd dream, he has great potential because he has all the nerdy stats in place, now he just has to please the "common" stat guys. i.e. BA.
Well, do you think I overlooked anyone? Why do I even ask this, you have probably fallen asleep at this point or just really clicked on the link because you saw it on my facebook and thought "What is he doing instead of actual real work?".
References
BA - Batting Average
SO - Strike outs, sometimes referred to as K's.
SLG - Slugging percentage. google it if you do not know it.
OPS - On base percentage plus Slugging percentage
OBP - On base percentage
XB - Number of extra base hits. A base hit more than a single.
DP - Double plays fielded.
RF - Range Factor. You can google it, its just a way to grade fielders.
Monday, February 21, 2011
PennyBall.....not as ballin as that one book.
Intersting thought occured to me today. Who would make the PennyBall all-star team?
We will define The PennyBall All-Star Team as an all-star team composed of players working for the bare minimum, or at least real close to it. Players in that ever so low tax-bracket between $400,00 to $700,000 a year. At first I thought of naming them "The Pirates All-Star Team", but then I realized the Padres are almost just as cheap. Of course one of those teams churns out a decent product oh, maybe every 18 years or so.
I am going to have a STAT reference sheet here at the top. I hate reading through stat research articles and being clueless when they mention certain stats so here I will have my reference guide for this blog entry.
WHIP - Walks+Hits per Inning Pitched
K - Strikeouts
ERA - Earned Run Average (Average Runs given up over 9 innings)
K/9 - Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched
DIPS - ERA independent of defensive factors.
BIPA - Ball in play average. Average balls put in play over the season. A ball put in play is defined as a ball hit into the field of play.
BAA - Batting Average Allowed
SLG - Slugging Average Against
Today I will start with our Penny Penching Pitchers. I don't really have a limit of pitchers set, I just tried to snag a few and 4 is what I wound up with in no particular order, except the first one, the starter.
Mat Latos, San Diego Padres. $407,800 in 2010.
Mr. Latos is a 6'6" Right handed fireball throwing fantasy players dream from Alexandria, VA. He was drafted back in 2006 with the 333rd pick in the 11th round. 2010 was his first full year in the Majors and oh what a year it was.
He made our starter for the ridiculous stats he put over his first full season. You will notice he actually has the lowest Wins, at 14, in our group of pitchers but with these kind of stats I would feel confident putting him on the mound to start our imaginary all-star game. He put up a 2.92 ERA which put him at #13 overall. He was also #2 at lowest Hits allowed with at least 30 games and #17 in walks allowed with just 50. This puts that ever important WHIP statistic at 1.08 which was 8th lowest in the league. He was also 8th in K/9 with 9.21. The nerdiest of the stats for Mat I will use is his DIPS which came in 5th in the league. This means that even with or without a great defense he put up great stats. Needless to say he put up great numbers and if he keeps it up that huge contract will not be far behind.
Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics $410,000 in 2010.
Mr. Cahill is a 22 year old 6'4" Right hander from Oceanside, CA. He was drafted back in 2006 with the 66th pick in the 2nd round out of Vista HS. 2010 was his second year in the Majors and on a side note he wound up 9th in voting for the Cy Young award.
The first thing that pops out are his 18 wins. That means the A's paid $22,777.77 per win, which is very very low to shell out. Needless to say he fits right into to the notoriously tight-waded A's organization. The first thing that stood out stat-wise was his BIPA. He was numero uno in lowest BIPA. If hitters aren't putting the ball in play then the only other way they can get on is by walks and hit by pitch. Well he was 17th lowest in walks and therefor that put his WHIP at a solid 1.11 which was 11th lowest in the league. He was also #8 in BAA at .220, which makes sense if they didn't get hits off of him and another stat that was pretty interesting was that he was #3 in DPB (Double Plays Batted). This leads us to a few negatives I guess. The first is that his DIP% was pretty high, which tells us that he had a solid defense behind him. Of course this is good for his stats and the biggest negative was his average innings pitched was 5.9. This means on average he didn't even get to clock in a quality start, which says you must pitch at least 6 innings and give up less than 4 runs. There is mucho grande debate over what a true quality start is and I'm not going to touch that. I'm just going off the definition I found online. We all know if its online it must be true. The few stories I read online were saying that they expect next year to not be as fabulous for Mr. Cahill as this year, and to that I say, understandable. He had a great year in a young career. He has time to develop and with young pitchers good and bad years happen. For him I hope the next is even better.
Clay Bucholz, Boston Red Sox. $443,000 in 2010.
Mr. Bucholz is a 6'3" Right hander from Nederland, TX. He was drafted with the 42nd pick of the 1st round out of Angelina College in Lufkin,TX. He has seen action in the majors before this year, but 2010 was his first full year in the big leagues. He also finished 6th in the Cy Young award voting and represented the Red Sox in the actual All-Star game.
Again the big reason he made this list is because of his wins. With 17 wins and only getting paid $443K that is $26058.82 per win. That is great and all, but he really put up some great stats in some departments. The one stat the really stand out is his ERA at 2.33. Thats #3 in the bigs. He also has a pretty WHIP at just 1.20. Another one that stands out was that he was number #1 in fewest hits allowed this season at 142. That averaged out to just 5.07 hits per game. He had middle of the road stats on walks per 9 at 3.5 and also K/9 of 6.2. But his SGA came in 3rd lowest at .312. This means he wasn't giving up the big hits. He was putting people on base, but they just weren't getting around to home plate.
Phil Hughes, New York Yankees. $447,000 in 2010.
Mr. Hughes (coincidentally my 9th grade math teacher) is a 6'5" Right hander from Mission Viejo,CA. He was drafted back in 2004 in the first round with the 23rd pick overall out of Foothill HS in Santa Anna CA. He is the most seasoned of our penny penching pitching squad. He was a set up man with the Yankees before turning into a starting pitcher this past year. He represented the Yankees in the 2010 All-Star game.
Again just like the last two pitchers the amount of wins is real nice to get out of such a low salary. Phil had 18 Wins which put him at $24,833.33 per win for the Yankees payroll department. I know he is a great pitcher with great stuff, but I really think what got him to that level is the fact he is playing for a stacked Yankees line up. Of the top 25 Pitchers in the Win column he is one of two with an ERA greater than 4.00. This tells me he had some potent offense in the line up to make up for some games that should have gone to the other team. Notably 3 games that he gave up over 5 earned runs and still made out with the W. Now if he had a 15 Win season he still might have made this list due to his WHIP at 1.25, but what really hurt him was the amount of Walks he had. Of interesting note, he did not have one hit batter the entire season, which of course had him tied for first.
Honarable Mention. (Mainly because I'm tired and want to go to sleep)
Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets. $500,000 in 2010
15 Wins in 2010 for the half a mil is pretty good. He had a pretty low On Base Percentage and he only gave up 12 Home runs all year. Had a solid ERA of 3.66 as well. Didn't make the cut because the other players either had more wins or better stats. Still a great year for Mr. Pelfrey.
Jaimy Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals. $400,000 in 2010
Lowest win total out of the bunch at 13, but he was 3rd in voting for Rookie of the Year honors. Biggest stat was his extremely low 2.70 ERA. Man I hope he keeps this up for my Cardinals. He was 4th in fewest hits allowed and had a really low SLG. His walks were not so hot, which hopefully his command will develop over time, but that low SLG tells me he isn't going to give up many big hits. I feel the biggest negative is that the Cardinals only got an average of 5.82 innings out of him per game. Hopefully this is because of his youth. Good luck to him next year.
I will say this was the most time I have spent on research for one of these blogs so far. Tell me what you think in the comment section, maybe I left someone out, I'm sure I did.
We will define The PennyBall All-Star Team as an all-star team composed of players working for the bare minimum, or at least real close to it. Players in that ever so low tax-bracket between $400,00 to $700,000 a year. At first I thought of naming them "The Pirates All-Star Team", but then I realized the Padres are almost just as cheap. Of course one of those teams churns out a decent product oh, maybe every 18 years or so.
I am going to have a STAT reference sheet here at the top. I hate reading through stat research articles and being clueless when they mention certain stats so here I will have my reference guide for this blog entry.
WHIP - Walks+Hits per Inning Pitched
K - Strikeouts
ERA - Earned Run Average (Average Runs given up over 9 innings)
K/9 - Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched
DIPS - ERA independent of defensive factors.
BIPA - Ball in play average. Average balls put in play over the season. A ball put in play is defined as a ball hit into the field of play.
BAA - Batting Average Allowed
SLG - Slugging Average Against
Today I will start with our Penny Penching Pitchers. I don't really have a limit of pitchers set, I just tried to snag a few and 4 is what I wound up with in no particular order, except the first one, the starter.
Mat Latos, San Diego Padres. $407,800 in 2010.
Mr. Latos is a 6'6" Right handed fireball throwing fantasy players dream from Alexandria, VA. He was drafted back in 2006 with the 333rd pick in the 11th round. 2010 was his first full year in the Majors and oh what a year it was.
He made our starter for the ridiculous stats he put over his first full season. You will notice he actually has the lowest Wins, at 14, in our group of pitchers but with these kind of stats I would feel confident putting him on the mound to start our imaginary all-star game. He put up a 2.92 ERA which put him at #13 overall. He was also #2 at lowest Hits allowed with at least 30 games and #17 in walks allowed with just 50. This puts that ever important WHIP statistic at 1.08 which was 8th lowest in the league. He was also 8th in K/9 with 9.21. The nerdiest of the stats for Mat I will use is his DIPS which came in 5th in the league. This means that even with or without a great defense he put up great stats. Needless to say he put up great numbers and if he keeps it up that huge contract will not be far behind.
Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics $410,000 in 2010.
Mr. Cahill is a 22 year old 6'4" Right hander from Oceanside, CA. He was drafted back in 2006 with the 66th pick in the 2nd round out of Vista HS. 2010 was his second year in the Majors and on a side note he wound up 9th in voting for the Cy Young award.
The first thing that pops out are his 18 wins. That means the A's paid $22,777.77 per win, which is very very low to shell out. Needless to say he fits right into to the notoriously tight-waded A's organization. The first thing that stood out stat-wise was his BIPA. He was numero uno in lowest BIPA. If hitters aren't putting the ball in play then the only other way they can get on is by walks and hit by pitch. Well he was 17th lowest in walks and therefor that put his WHIP at a solid 1.11 which was 11th lowest in the league. He was also #8 in BAA at .220, which makes sense if they didn't get hits off of him and another stat that was pretty interesting was that he was #3 in DPB (Double Plays Batted). This leads us to a few negatives I guess. The first is that his DIP% was pretty high, which tells us that he had a solid defense behind him. Of course this is good for his stats and the biggest negative was his average innings pitched was 5.9. This means on average he didn't even get to clock in a quality start, which says you must pitch at least 6 innings and give up less than 4 runs. There is mucho grande debate over what a true quality start is and I'm not going to touch that. I'm just going off the definition I found online. We all know if its online it must be true. The few stories I read online were saying that they expect next year to not be as fabulous for Mr. Cahill as this year, and to that I say, understandable. He had a great year in a young career. He has time to develop and with young pitchers good and bad years happen. For him I hope the next is even better.
Clay Bucholz, Boston Red Sox. $443,000 in 2010.
Mr. Bucholz is a 6'3" Right hander from Nederland, TX. He was drafted with the 42nd pick of the 1st round out of Angelina College in Lufkin,TX. He has seen action in the majors before this year, but 2010 was his first full year in the big leagues. He also finished 6th in the Cy Young award voting and represented the Red Sox in the actual All-Star game.
Again the big reason he made this list is because of his wins. With 17 wins and only getting paid $443K that is $26058.82 per win. That is great and all, but he really put up some great stats in some departments. The one stat the really stand out is his ERA at 2.33. Thats #3 in the bigs. He also has a pretty WHIP at just 1.20. Another one that stands out was that he was number #1 in fewest hits allowed this season at 142. That averaged out to just 5.07 hits per game. He had middle of the road stats on walks per 9 at 3.5 and also K/9 of 6.2. But his SGA came in 3rd lowest at .312. This means he wasn't giving up the big hits. He was putting people on base, but they just weren't getting around to home plate.
Phil Hughes, New York Yankees. $447,000 in 2010.
Mr. Hughes (coincidentally my 9th grade math teacher) is a 6'5" Right hander from Mission Viejo,CA. He was drafted back in 2004 in the first round with the 23rd pick overall out of Foothill HS in Santa Anna CA. He is the most seasoned of our penny penching pitching squad. He was a set up man with the Yankees before turning into a starting pitcher this past year. He represented the Yankees in the 2010 All-Star game.
Again just like the last two pitchers the amount of wins is real nice to get out of such a low salary. Phil had 18 Wins which put him at $24,833.33 per win for the Yankees payroll department. I know he is a great pitcher with great stuff, but I really think what got him to that level is the fact he is playing for a stacked Yankees line up. Of the top 25 Pitchers in the Win column he is one of two with an ERA greater than 4.00. This tells me he had some potent offense in the line up to make up for some games that should have gone to the other team. Notably 3 games that he gave up over 5 earned runs and still made out with the W. Now if he had a 15 Win season he still might have made this list due to his WHIP at 1.25, but what really hurt him was the amount of Walks he had. Of interesting note, he did not have one hit batter the entire season, which of course had him tied for first.
Honarable Mention. (Mainly because I'm tired and want to go to sleep)
Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets. $500,000 in 2010
15 Wins in 2010 for the half a mil is pretty good. He had a pretty low On Base Percentage and he only gave up 12 Home runs all year. Had a solid ERA of 3.66 as well. Didn't make the cut because the other players either had more wins or better stats. Still a great year for Mr. Pelfrey.
Jaimy Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals. $400,000 in 2010
Lowest win total out of the bunch at 13, but he was 3rd in voting for Rookie of the Year honors. Biggest stat was his extremely low 2.70 ERA. Man I hope he keeps this up for my Cardinals. He was 4th in fewest hits allowed and had a really low SLG. His walks were not so hot, which hopefully his command will develop over time, but that low SLG tells me he isn't going to give up many big hits. I feel the biggest negative is that the Cardinals only got an average of 5.82 innings out of him per game. Hopefully this is because of his youth. Good luck to him next year.
I will say this was the most time I have spent on research for one of these blogs so far. Tell me what you think in the comment section, maybe I left someone out, I'm sure I did.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Blog for Paul
So my good friend Paul mentioned "I think the biggest key to a win is pitching to contact. Maddox and Smoltz are two easy examples. Ground balls kept in the infield win games for pitchers. Do they track that stat? Don't rip me ...for my examples please, it's late." and to this I ask, Does pitching to contact win games?
Now before we get started Paul brought up two hall of fame pitchers. I would like to think of these guys as two outliers. My brain's first thought is if we pitch to contact then the hitter has a better chance of getting on base, which leads to a better chance of him getting to home. Here is what we must decide before we did in to this thought.
What stat declares a pitcher to be a good pitcher? I am going to use ERA (Earned Run Average). Its such a basic stat, and that is why I love it. A low ERA means less players cross the plate which gives your team a better chance of winning.
What stat/stats would tell us he is a contact pitcher? This is where it got interesting. Of course if he had a large BAA (batting average against) it would mean he would be a high contact hitter, but what if those hits where outs as in the scenario we are describing. So I thought if the pitcher had a low ERA plus a low K rate (strikeout for the extremely baseball stat illiterate) and a pretty low or even kind of low BAA then it must mean he was a contact pitcher. I am not defining low or high yet, this is just me thinking, sort of like those dream sequences in late 80's/early 90's sitcoms.
So I decided to look at last years pitchers in the MLB and see who meets this description. First I started with the top 50 pitchers with the lowest ERA because that is how I am defining a pitcher being good or bad. (Yes you could use some nerdier stat I know, but again I like ERA because its easy) I sorted those 50 players based on K's per inning. One pitcher stood out from the rest last year. He was the only pitcher with an ERA under 3.0 with a K per inning under .60 and thats R.A. Dickey for the Mets. There were others that I would stick in the same category, mainly Trevor Cahill in Oakland, Tim Hudson with Atlanta and Clay Buchholz with Boston. But the difference between those players and Dickey was that Dickey had the highest Hits per Inning rate out of the bunch. What saved him was his BBIP (Base on ball per inning pitch). Out of the top 50 ERA pitchers he ranked number 9 in this category and on top of that he is the only one out of that group even in the top 28 in BBIP. So he is extremely accurate and because of this it is compensating for his high contact rate. The crappy part is that it did not convert to Wins and Losses which is probably why he isn't considered and elite pitcher. He had 11 wins and 9 losses on the season. He also didn't play as many games as the other top pitchers (27 compared to the low to mid 30's for the other players) which is why his stats may be skewed a little. With less games it means that a few good games can skew your average down on most of these stats I mentioned.
I'm definitely going to keep an eye on this guy and see what happens throughout the rest of his career. He has been in up and down with the bigs since 2001 but last year was easily the best year he has had so far. So much so the Mets gave him a pretty heafty contract. For them I hope last year was a fluke but for Mr. Dickey I hope it was the start to many great seasons to come.
Now before we get started Paul brought up two hall of fame pitchers. I would like to think of these guys as two outliers. My brain's first thought is if we pitch to contact then the hitter has a better chance of getting on base, which leads to a better chance of him getting to home. Here is what we must decide before we did in to this thought.
What stat declares a pitcher to be a good pitcher? I am going to use ERA (Earned Run Average). Its such a basic stat, and that is why I love it. A low ERA means less players cross the plate which gives your team a better chance of winning.
What stat/stats would tell us he is a contact pitcher? This is where it got interesting. Of course if he had a large BAA (batting average against) it would mean he would be a high contact hitter, but what if those hits where outs as in the scenario we are describing. So I thought if the pitcher had a low ERA plus a low K rate (strikeout for the extremely baseball stat illiterate) and a pretty low or even kind of low BAA then it must mean he was a contact pitcher. I am not defining low or high yet, this is just me thinking, sort of like those dream sequences in late 80's/early 90's sitcoms.
So I decided to look at last years pitchers in the MLB and see who meets this description. First I started with the top 50 pitchers with the lowest ERA because that is how I am defining a pitcher being good or bad. (Yes you could use some nerdier stat I know, but again I like ERA because its easy) I sorted those 50 players based on K's per inning. One pitcher stood out from the rest last year. He was the only pitcher with an ERA under 3.0 with a K per inning under .60 and thats R.A. Dickey for the Mets. There were others that I would stick in the same category, mainly Trevor Cahill in Oakland, Tim Hudson with Atlanta and Clay Buchholz with Boston. But the difference between those players and Dickey was that Dickey had the highest Hits per Inning rate out of the bunch. What saved him was his BBIP (Base on ball per inning pitch). Out of the top 50 ERA pitchers he ranked number 9 in this category and on top of that he is the only one out of that group even in the top 28 in BBIP. So he is extremely accurate and because of this it is compensating for his high contact rate. The crappy part is that it did not convert to Wins and Losses which is probably why he isn't considered and elite pitcher. He had 11 wins and 9 losses on the season. He also didn't play as many games as the other top pitchers (27 compared to the low to mid 30's for the other players) which is why his stats may be skewed a little. With less games it means that a few good games can skew your average down on most of these stats I mentioned.
I'm definitely going to keep an eye on this guy and see what happens throughout the rest of his career. He has been in up and down with the bigs since 2001 but last year was easily the best year he has had so far. So much so the Mets gave him a pretty heafty contract. For them I hope last year was a fluke but for Mr. Dickey I hope it was the start to many great seasons to come.
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